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It is a setback in part announced that of the second quarter GDP communicated yesterday by Istat. The zero quarterly change (+ 0.7% in the trend), calculated on concatenated values and net of calendar effects, it comes just a few days by the negative data of industrial production (-0.4% in June over May and -1 % on the year) and after the last monthly note of the same Istat which bore with it a negative signal by the indicator composite leading. But no positive values on the evolution of the cycle had arrived even before the indicator Ita-coin produced by the Bank of Italy, moved into negative territory in the months of May and June (-0.04 and -0.08).
To learn about the movement of the components on the side of the resources and that of lending that led to the zero change announced yesterday will have to wait the Istat note of September 2. The preliminary estimate for the second quarter, characterized by an additional business day for both the previous quarter and compared to the second quarter of 2015, merely point out that the variation zero is the synthesis of an increase in value added in the agriculture sectors and of services and a decrease in that industry. While on the demand side there is a “slight negative contribution of domestic component (gross inventories), offset by a positive contribution from net foreign component”. To find a dish we must go back to the second quarter of 2007, while the second and third quarter of 2014 had registered a -0.1%.
In the light of yesterday’s data acquired in GDP variation was to 0.6%, a figure that coincides with the growth of the domestic product in the event of no change in the last two quarters of the year. It is a value indicated in the last end of July Ref forecasts, while the Parliamentary Budget Office in its latest estimates produced with the short model indicated a GDP end of the year to below 1% (with a forecast, however, 0.2% in the second quarter and 0.1% in the third). The estimate of the Government contained in the Def last April, that is remembered, indicates a growth rate for 2016 of 1.2%.
In the second quarter of the year, a period which ended before They run wild as exogenous Brexit or failure coup turkish, GDP increased by 0.6% in quarterly terms in the United Kingdom and 0.3% in the US, 0.4% in Germany, whereas there was no change only in France. In trend terms, there was an increase of 2.2% in the UK, 1.4% in France and 1.2% in the US. Overall, according to widespread estimates on 29 July and confirmed yesterday by Eurostat, the GDP of the euro area countries increased by 0.3% from the previous quarter and by 1.6% in comparison with the same quarter of 2015.
Several observers (Andrea Goldstein for Nomisma, Fedele De Novellis to Ref., Lorenzo Codogno for European economic notebook) indicated in the slowing global economy one of the crucial determinants of the weakening of the national economic cycle . And just yesterday by the International Monetary Fund came the confirmation that the Chinese economy continues its transition, complex and full of challenges, towards a more sustainable and moderate growth. After growth of 6.9% in 2015, GDP will slow this year to 6.6% in 2017 and is estimated to grow by 6.2%.
Returning to Istat note yesterday, I am not to report revisions on previous estimates in 2016 and 2015. on 23 September will be released the data on national accounts in 2015, while 27 are expected by the new macroeconomic forecasts of the Government in the update report to the Def.
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