If you brake in part announced that the GDP in the second quarter of the year. The negative data of the common industrial production a few days ago (-0.4% in June over May and -1% on the year) had turned on the last red light, an economic stagnation announcement that had been signaled by the indicator composite leading Istat and before that by the indicator Ita-coin of the Bank of Italy. The change of zero GDP of April-June period, puts us in line at the train Eurozone (in France Company) and promises an acquired growth of 0.6% at the end of year, ie half of the trend expected by the Government and on which the maneuver last year was built.
Of course, this figure may increase if in the last six months of the year will be better. But on the economic dynamics of the third and fourth quarters will weigh the effects of “blacks swans” of recent weeks: Brexit, the attempted coup in Turkey, market uncertainty on the health of banks and the recapitalization that might arrive. Not to mention the political uncertainties, since the constitutional referendum expected in November and on which I am at this point focused the attention of all policy makers. They are all dark clouds that can only determine the postponement of an investment choice, the granting of a loan or simply a major expense.
It does not help the international scenario, unfortunately, with an expansion of the US economy weaker than expected and the gradual deceleration of large Asian country, a context that slows the drawdown of stocks although, as he writes Istat in today’s note, the figure for the second quarter includes the slightly negative contribution of domestic component (gross inventories), offset by a positive contribution from net foreign component.
We will know on September 2 the components of the movement , on the side of the resources and that of lending, which led to the change in zero communicated today by ISTAT, a trend that has a precedent in the second quarter of 2007 and in a couple of quarters of 2014; Data latter then corrected negatively on subsequent revisions. Surely the government will have to revise downwards its estimates in the 2017 update report to the Def will publish on September 27 and secure with the fiscal margins for maneuver of the next year will become more narrow.
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