Poste, analysts: the dividend in 2016 will increase to 0.40 euro – Milano Finanza

The market promotes the second quarter accounts of the Italian Post (+ 1.25% to EUR 6.06 on the stock exchange), above expectations thanks to the gain on the sale of Visa Europe, and sees a richer dividend on budget 2016. Another positive surprise of the accounts, according to the Equita analysts, was the stabilization of volumes in the Mail sector (-10% in the first half, as in the first quarter) and the acceleration in the Parcels sector (from + 10% to + 14% in the first half against a + 11% estimated for the entire year).

So the EBIT of the Mail & industry; Parcels (-103 million euro) was higher than expected due to the improved margin. Pure insurance business has performed better in terms of EBIT (162 million, + 17%) with a collection of 4.4 billion euro (-3% year-on-year but was seen down 5%). Well, finally, the revenues of the Financial Services division above expectations at 1.4 billion (+ 8%), brought about the sale of Visa Europe (formerly Visa are, however, dropped by 2.5%, a bit ‘weak second UBS) and the Solvency 2 index equal to 385% from 404% in the first quarter, implying still excess capital of over 5 billion euro.

After these good morning Equita accounts has increased the estimated useful net later this year from 602 million to 658 million euro (552 million in 2015) and therefore the dividend in 2016 from 37 to 41 euro cents (34 cents the coupon on the budget 2015) and the target price on the stock Poste 8, 4 to 8.6 Euros (buy rating confirmed).

They did just as the Mediobanca analysts Securities, bringing the estimate of net profit from 2016 to 599 million and the coupon from the existing operation 0 , 35 to 0.37 EUR per share (6.1% on the dividend yield). “We confirm the outperform rating on the action but to reflect the higher risk premium on Italian financial stocks we bring the target price from 8.50 to 7.70 euro”, shall specify the Mediobanca analysts .

630 million euro is instead the new estimate of net profit of Kepler Cheuvreux (buy rating and target price of 7.50 euro confirmed the title), considering the gain on the sale of Visa Europe, higher restructuring costs and more higher tax rate. More cautious, however, the UBS analysts have maintained that the estimates earnings per share of 0.49 euro in 2016 because they expect that the positive impact of the sale of the stake in Visa Europe will be offset by lower earnings in the second half.

While the experts of the Swiss investment bank have cut forecasts for 2017-2018 eps 3-4% discounting, for the most part, a decline in earnings estimates for the Financial Services division as expected that the environment of low long-term interest rates will have a negative impact on this segment. The target price on the stock then drops from 8 to 7.70 euro but the rating remains buy as the company reiterated a pay out of 80% for this year. Pure Goldman Sachs continues to recommend buying the stock with a target price to 7.5 euro, however, estimating year-end dividend increased to 0.40 euro per share.

The next expected event by investors is the placement of the remaining share of 29.7% of the Italian Post held by the Ministry of economy and Finance in the fall. That cares only partly the Imi Bank analysts (add rating and target price to 8.1 euro). “The second quarter results have confirmed that the company is on track with the actions foreseen in its business plan. The restructuring process of the Mail & industry; Parcels proceeds, with a slowdown in the decline in revenues in the Mail sector, acceleration revenue in the Parcel and a reduction in staff, in line with the objectives of the group, “the statement said Imi Bank.

” the Financial Services division continues to support the profitability and the insurance division confirmed its strong growth potential, “added the Imi Bank analysts believe that the stock price will remain supported by the company’s generous dividend policy (dividend yield of 6%, based on the FactSet consensus),” we expect there to be confirmed in the next business plan. the placement of the participation of approximately 30% held by the Treasury expected later this year could generate a little ‘overhang effect (excess market paper, ed), in our view. “