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The results of recent stress tests show the resilience of the major national banks to more and hypothetical macroeconomic shocks. This was stated by Ignazio Visco in a long interview with the online newspaper “Politico.eu”, the first after the publication, last Friday, the results of “tests” badged Eba effort and after heavy sales on that in recent days the markets have It targeted the Italian and European banking stocks.
The Governor of the Bank of Italy warns against superficially dismiss the fears of the markets on the asset quality of Italian banks but, he adds, “there are good reasons to believe that they are somewhat overestimated.” Taking into account the particular methodological assumptions of the tests in 2016, the fact that there are no minimum capital thresholds to be met in a pass / fail logic and the results will be an input into the supervisory review process “is neither possible nor advisable, use stress tests this year to draw mechanistic implications for future capital requirements of the banks, “said Visco.
Yesterday, the president of Confindustria, Vincenzo Boccia, came an invitation to distinguish the situation of the banks by the price lists trends. “I think – said Boccia – the first big step has been taken. We have situations related to Npl but these are manageable. Else are derivatives that have other countries, but we do not want negative benchmark with anyone. ” “The important thing – added Boccia – is that banks will return to financing the real economy: the problem of credit we solve only with an economic growth policy”.
Returning to the interview to “Politico.eu” the Governor has thus recognized that the EBA test results offer a snapshot overview of Italian banks characterized as “strong and few basic, well-identified cases of serious but manageable weakness that must be addressed and resolved as required by supervisory authorities. ” The reference is to the Monte dei Paschi di Siena, on whose Visco bailout confident we have said, since the measures put in place are aimed at overcoming “once for all current weaknesses.” The spin-off of all gross NPLs, the increase in “coverage ratio” on other non-performing loans and the capital increase expected with an operation entirely market, will enable MPS to “substantially improve profitability (thanks to a cost lower funding) and its ability to compete and to do credit to the economy. ” Considerations, the Governor, in line with the statement made two days earlier in Parliament by Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan.
At the request of a particular judgment on the attention devoted by the international press to the situation of the banks Italian in recent months, the Governor has therefore responded by quoting a case in point: the advice on recapitalization required for the entire national banking system, that have been encrypted in the tens of billions of euro. “They are based – noted Visco – on the assumption that the bad guys, including claims” unlikely to be repaid “total stock of loans to be sold by all banks at once and at a price approximately equal to half the value recorded in the financial statements ». An assumption that the Governor has branded as unrealistic.
Finally Responding to a question on Italy as a possible source of concern for international investors, Visco has recognized that economic growth should be further strengthened but also made note that you are recording the second consecutive year of gradual recovery after the long and deep recession. While structural reforms put in place in recent years will help to strengthen the potential for growth. Visco said that in 2010 Italian exports’ has regained market share in a systematic way. And this has contributed to the return of the current balance to a surplus. ” On the other hand – he added – even the public finance framework is under control, “Italy maintains a high primary surplus and the public debt is expected to decrease in the near future after an initial stabilization of its growth l ‘ Last year. At the same time, the overall ratio of household debt-income is low, while that of enterprises is more or less in line with the EU average. “
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