Weak bags awaiting the Fed’s move. Go back on the table the rise in US interest rates – The Republic

MILAN – 11:00 hours. The Fed will raise or not interest rates later this year? The question is strengthened in the operating rooms, where the expectations for the upcoming US Federal Reserve moves are back to dictate the time to market performance. Also last year, on the other hand, the months leading up to the first rate hike by far in 2008 were full of expectations and uncertainties. Use the latest macroeconomic data were mixed and led observers to to postpone to 2017 the right time for Janet Yellen touches the cost of money, even in view of the changing of the guard provided the White House and to its “political opportunity” to postpone such an important decision. By the slow recovery in the eurozone (with concerns for banks) to the effects still expected from Brexit, are also many sources of tension that Washington should keep an eye on.

But yesterday is William Dudley , President of the New York Fed, which Dennis Lockhart , a colleague of Atlanta, said that an increase in borrowing costs in September is not ruled out and that markets are likely to fall asleep on its laurels in this situation. Words by “hawks” who seem to want to leave every option open to the Fed. The immediate effect on the markets has been to strengthen the dollar against the major currencies rivals, while futures on Fed Fund (the market tool that indicates the possibility of change of monetary policy) they have returned to attribute – for the first time after the Brexit (23 June) – more than 50% chance to increase the cost of borrowing US later this year. Thus the expectation by even the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where riunierà the elite of world finance and from whom – August 26 next – Yellen will speak.

In Bloomberg graph indicates the possibility of a rise in US interest rates later this year (white line) and the trend in the US ten-year bond yields (purple line). For the first time since the Brexit, the market gives more than 50% chance of a monetary tightening during the 2016

Waiting to dissolve these doubts, perhaps with some guidance coming from the minutes of the Fed which will be published in the Italian evening, European stocks slightly wavy treat. Milan accelerates downward (-1.4%) with Generali and the banking sector affected by sales. They turn red, while taking better, the other European bourses: Frankfurt 0.7% file as Paris , London 0.15 %.

‘ € is falling and the dollar rises as mentioned: the European currency is changing hands at 1,127 yen and 113.5. The spread between ten-year BTPs and German Bunds is permanently below 115 basis points, with Italian ten-making 1.09% on the day of launch. The “constitutional referendum risk” begins to perceive themselves high in the international trading desks and, consequently, the cost to protect against expected volatility on the Milan Stock salt. macro agenda are reported new data from UK , significant because they are the first post-Brexit. Unemployment in the three months ending in June (the referendum is only arrived June 23) fell year on year to 4.9% and remained unchanged compared to the recognition of the previous three months. These are better numbers than expected by analysts, which estimated an unemployment rate increased slightly to 5 percent. Yesterday inflation showed an annual upward trend, mainly because of the high cost of imports and that is due to the weakening of the pound after the end of June referendum. In the US take instead bench applications for new mortgages and oil stocks. In terms of raw materials, the Crude is down to $ 46.38 a barrel for WTI and $ 48.93 for Brent. L ‘ Gold is stable (-0.13%) in Asian markets at $ 1,344.29.

In the morning, the Asian markets have treated weak, after peaking a year, in agreement with the decline in oil prices. Has done better than other Asia-Pacific Squares the Tokyo , helped by the weakening of the yen. After a slight start, the Nikkei index closed with an increase of 0.9% (rise of 149.13 points) at an altitude of 16,745.64 points reversing the negative course of the last two sessions. The Japanese currency has had a weight declaration of a senior government official Shinzo Abe that it is played as a warning of a possible intervention in the exchange market if the government discovers a too rapid appreciation of the Japanese currency. Shortly moves Shanghai and Shenzhen in closing, while Hong Kong lost 0.5%.

Wall Street , last night, the indices ended on minimum day after the vigil record levels. In view of the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve last month’s meeting, expected in the Italian evening, investors have focused on the words of Governors and on the possible rate hike in the coming months. The Dow Jones sold to end 0.45%, the S & amp; P 500 lost 0.55% and the Nasdaq 0.66%.