MILAN – The EU slightly revises downward the Italy’s growth forecast for the current year, while the rooms on the budget deficit. Forecasts updated by the Commission in the middle of the tug of war between Brussels and Rome on the flexibility required by the Italian Government, to which the answers will come in May. For the EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Pierre Moscovici, the issue should be dealt with “a bit of serenity, work and patience. I am convinced that the spirit of dialogue and compromise should always prevail over confrontation.”
Italy’s numbers. winter the update of the Commission’s estimates, Brussels expects the tricolor GDP has expanded by 0.8% in 2015, will make up 1.4% this year and then +1, 3% in 2017. in November, estimated to an annual 0.1% increase. “After growing moderately in 2015, the Italian economy gains momentum in 2016 and 2017 with the strengthening of domestic demand,” writes Brussels, that “the fall in oil prices and an expansionary fiscal position will support demand and will offset the slowdown of exports “in the second half of 2015.
DATA: the estimates for Italy compared
Even as rigarda chapter of the deficit, changes in the report card italiala are minimal: in 2016 the deficit / Italian GDP will amount to 2.5% market share (after 2.6% last year) and in 2017 will drop to 1.5% share. Corrections on the latest estimates are in the two verses: Brussels in November this year showed a deficit / GDP at 2.3% and 1.6% for next year. The government expects a 2.4% for 2016 (including additional expenses for security and culture) and 1.1% for 2016. It worsens the structural balance, to which the sheriffs Brussels look better when it comes to open proceedings against a country that has to deal off the rails: from -1% in 2015 to -1.7% in 2016. finally, with regard to debt, the estimate rises slightly from 2016 to 132.4% and subsequently declined to 130.6% in 2017 (when it was thought in the autumn respectively 132.2 and 130% of the product). Improves estimates on unemployment, which is expected to fall to 11.4% in 2016 and then 11.3% the year after.
The weakness of the recovery. Beyond the numbers on Italy, the forecasts come at a time of difficult recovery for the Eurozone: the outlook “remains subject to great uncertainty and the overall risks are increasing.” For this reason, the Eurozone GDP for 2016 was revised down to 1.7% compared to 1.8% calculated in November. For 2017 will be 1.9%. Warns the Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Pierre Moscovici : “The weakness of the international situation presents a danger: for this you need to be extremely vigilant. We have much work to strengthen investment, increase our competitiveness in a intelligent and complete the work of consolidation of public finances.
<'p> the negotiations on flexibility. the forecasts come at a time of heated dialectic between Brussels and Rome, with the government waiting yet the Commission’s final opinion on the law of stability for 2016, one that should get to the 2.4% ratio of deficit to GDP, a level reached after the Paris attacks by launching the safety-culture program by the Prime Minister , Matteo Renzi. On the table is the deal because Brussels accepts that level, which is far higher than the data original goals for Italy under the Stability and Growth Pact. With the advent of the Presidency Juncker, the EU has (partly) changed course giving space to the famous ‘flexibility’, which is nothing other than the ability to correct the budget (ie cut spending) less than expected, in the presence of extraordinary events. These, in Italy, are the implementation of structural reforms, the co-investment with the EU in projects for the development and – as last – the management of the flow of migrants. In all, it comes to about 16 billion requests for flexibility, or a higher deficit.
On the last point, in particular, it has sparked debate. Italy asks to take a space deficit of 0.2% of GDP, claiming to have spent just over 3 billion to handle the refugees. He does so on the basis of the EU’s decision to deduct from the deficit counting the contributions requested from member states to support Turkey and its measures for Migration: worth 3 billion in all and for Italy the bill – after agreement yesterday – fell from 281 million to 224 million. If the 3 billion flexibility will be granted, it will only be known in the spring, when the EU will assess the costs for migrants as a whole and will give the final verdict on the maneuver. Today, in the forecast, the Commission takes note of the fact that the expenditure was 0.2% of GDP in 2015, just 0.05 points above the 2014 level, but “more than double compared to the 2011-2013 period” . Moscovici stressed in a press conference that Italy “is the country that benefits more than any other in Europe flexibility” and reiterated that “the dialogue with the Italian authorities is open and quality”; but definitive answers “will arrive in May, with a spirit of reform support but would not be contrary to the Stability and Growth Pact.”
At stake is the very future of the program Renzi. If this year you could shape a correction of the accounts contained all in all, next year is likely to have again to do with the juggernaut of safeguard clauses and close to much larger costs. The original program, in fact, provides a descent of the deficit up to 1.1% of GDP, while the possible increases in VAT and excise ready to take still weigh about fifteen billion.
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