The EU revised its estimates on the deficit in 2016 : 2.5% instead of 2.3% expected in November. 2015 deficit remains at 2.6%. “In 2016, despite the positive growth, the deficit is only marginally reduced,” writes the EU. “This reflects the expansionary impact of the stability law, including 3.2 billion of additional costs for security and culture that have increased the deficit expected in the final from 2.2% to 2.4%”. And “as a result, the structural deficit deteriorates three-quarters of a point in 2016.”
After “the peak of 2015,” Italian debt in 2016 will fall “only slightly even because the structural deficit deteriorates “, writes the EU Commission in the new economic estimates, revising upwards the debt in 2016 will be 132.4%, from 132.2% expected in November. The estimate for 2015 is revised downwards instead (132.8% from 133% in November). In 2017 the debt down to 130.6%, revised estimate upward by 130% of the last forecast. And the structural balance deteriorates more than expected: from -1% in 2015 to -1.7% in 2016.
The EU revises slightly downwards Italy’s growth estimates 0.8% in 2015, 1.4% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017. in November estimated 0.9%, 1.5% and 1.4%. “After growing moderately in 2015, the Italian economy gains momentum in 2016 and 2017 with the strengthening of domestic demand,” writes Brussels, that “the fall in oil prices and an expansionary fiscal position will support demand and will offset the slowdown of exports “in the second half of 2015.
the EU lowers estimates on Italian unemployment 11.9% in 2015, 11.4% in 2016 and 11.3 % in 2017. in November, provided 12.2%, 11.8% and 11.6%. “The relief on assumptions supported the increase in the number of employed people saw in 2015,” writes Brussels. “With the strengthening of the recovery, employment will continue to increase in 2016 and 2017. Nevertheless, unemployment goes down gradually.” And “the pressure on labor costs will remain limited in part by cuts to tax rates.”
Venture Growth, GDP only eurozone to 1.7% – “Forecasts overall growth have changed little since the autumn but the risks that growth will come in worse than expected have increased “, to which the eurozone’s GDP for 2016 was revised down to 1.7% compared to 1.8 % calculated in November. For 2017 will be 1.9%. So the winter economic forecast of the European Commission. “The risks to the economy are becoming more pronounced,” writes Brussels, including “slower growth in China” and a ‘ “geopolitical uncertainty and linked to policy.”
“To 2016 as a whole, eurozone annual inflation is now expected only 0.5% “, halved compared with 1% estimated in November. So the winter economic forecast of the European Commission, according to which the weak rise in inflation already in 2015 is due to “a further decline in oil prices” and for 2016 also weighs a “growth of small wages.” The rate should instead rise to 1.5% in 2017 with higher wages, increased domestic demand and a moderate increase in the price of oil.
Padoan: ‘Italian’ rugged Debt ‘, accounts under control “ – the Italian” public finances are under control and social security spending is sustainable. ” This was stated by Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, answering the question time in the Senate. The minister highlighted the “strength and debt sustainability” Italian, explaining that, according to the analysis of the European Commission itself, the results of the debt would be “robust, as they say in the jargon, to various scenarios”, ie also in case of “major shock” on interest.
the macroeconomic forecasts of the European Commission “are not far from those of the government of September when the context was more favorable,” said Padoan, answering the question time in the Senate. then citing the precedent of the Commission’s report on the sustainability of Italian public debt, Padoan stressed that “there is a warning from the Commission for failure to reduce debt”
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