GDP slows down in late 2015. But Renzi, Italy growing – ANSA.it

The Italian growth loses momentum, albeit with a first estimate of GDP for 2015 to + 0.7% confirms the exit of Italy from a recession lasting three years. To curb the enthusiasm fact comes the fourth quarter result, which stops at + 0.1%, worst figure of the year and below expectations, which not only lead to shave down the economy’s performance for the entire year but it makes the scenario even more uncertain for 2016. Moreover, it is not just Italy to struggle more than expected: in a context of worsening global economy, EU and Eurozone also – according to the latest Eurostat data – are slowing, even if the average of the GDP growth remains double that of Rome. Government and majority pointing attention to the ‘glass half full’, on an annual figure that comes back positive from 2011 and the seasonally-adjusted results for calendar effects, they say that in the fourth quarter, GDP grew by 1% round on an annual basis, the highest variation trend from the second quarter of 2011 more.

“it must be clear that Italy has changed, is shared ”, said the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. of course that matters to public finance (and Brussels) is the data ‘raw’. and 0.7% indicated by Istat, admits Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, “is lower than the forecast of the government.” in October, update note to Def had revised upwards the growth to + 0.9%, although already at year-end had begun to admit that it would be able to arrive at a maximum of + 0.8%. of course, “I would have preferred see one more decimal rather than less, “says the owner of via XX Settembre. And, in line with the repeatedly expressed the thought even by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, adds that” as we know the decimal count for little, what matters is the direction of travel which is growth, after three years of deep recession, which is confirmed and strengthened in 2016 “. Treasury still expects the final figure, which is widespread in March, convinced that an upward correction is possible.

There are data that would suggest an underestimation of the Istat estimates in times of crisis: in 2015 electricity consumption recorded a + 1.5%, the revenue went well, passengers on flights increased by 4.5%, the presences in hotels by 2.2%. It ‘a profession of optimism, that of the government, not shared by analysts, who instead of speaking as disappointing and below expectations, which in all probability will lead to a downward revision of the estimates for 2016, already generally less positive the executive. Padoan however invites to wait for the definitive figure for March, and you do not say “concerned” about the trend of the economy less dynamic than desired. Also because, as reiterated once again by Renzi, “we are the government with the lowest budget deficit in the last 10 years.” But it is given by many now assume that with the Economic and Financial Document – that the government will present in April – the macroeconomic framework should be adjusted. According to the Institute of Statistics data to weigh on low economic growth is “the synthesis of a decrease in the value added in the sector of industry” – with production in December which marked a -0.7% while maintaining a + 1% on the first plus sign in 2011 – and “increases in that of agriculture and services.” And it is domestic demand (not only consumption but also investments and stocks) to go down, while driving growth is abroad.

“On the demand side – Istat said analyzing components of GDP in the last quarter of the year – there is a negative contribution of domestic component (gross inventories), more than offset by the positive contribution of net foreign component. ” But analysts worry most is the trend in investments, which still have not really broken. The keystone is observed however, may offer the maxiammortamenti introduced by the Government with the law of stability, which could have made companies hesitate to invest. And while the Prime Minister continues to defend the image of Italy “that has changed, it is divided” thanks to the reforms, the weak growth and lower than expected come the fears of trade unions and take the barrage of opposition, who speak a shower freeze for the premier and the eviction notice to the government. “Matteo Renzi knows that the last quarter of 2015 when braking has a negative effect on 2016?” caustic tweets Renato Brunetta, predicting that “its public accounts will serve a shock jump and maneuver.”