MILAN – disappointing the Italian recovery in the latter part of 2015, when the turmoil in the international markets, the attacks in Paris and the slowdown of traditional economic engines such as China and emerging countries have put a brake on the industry throughout the West. But, reports today Istat, the Italian braking for the fourth quarter of last year, compared to the previous quarter, is also due to the negative contribution of domestic demand, however compensated by the foreign one is an internal weakness.
the December braking. How portend weak readings on industrial production on the last part of the year, in the fourth quarter of 2015 the gross domestic product, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, rose 0.1% from the previous quarter and by 1% on an annual basis. And ‘This is the provisional estimate Istat, signaling a slowdown in Italian shooting: four periods in 2015 have gone on falling and every quarter you are left on the street 0.1 percentage points of recovery, starting from +0 , 4% of the January-March period and coming right at + 0.1% from September to December. According to the Institute of Statistics, the figure for the fourth quarter is due to “a decrease in the value added in the industry sector and an increase in that of agriculture and services.” The + 0.1% recorded in December last disappoints the + 0.2% or + 0.3% in whom they believed analysts and same statistical Istat.
The dynamics of GDP, quarter by quarter
(cyclical variation of concatenated data, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects – reference year 2010. source: Istat)
the annual growth estimate. By the end of the fourth quarter, Istat can also estimate that in 2015 the annual change in GDP – based on the raw quarterly data – has been of + 0.7% (it comes down to +0.6 % if you correct the data by the working days, which in 2015 were three more). It is a given, as a preliminary, less than 0.9% that is still written in the update note the Def, but also of + 0.8% that had now cleared through customs Renzi. “The 0.7% that comes out by Istat is lower than the forecast of the Government. I would rather see a decimal in more rather than less, but as you know the decimal count for little, the important thing is the direction that is growth, after three years of deep recession, which is confirmed and strengthened in 2016, “says Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan. Italy is still above the 0.6% that Europe has assumed with the latest update of the macroeconomic forecast for the Old Continent. Insufficient space, however, to celebrate the fact that he finally saw a positive annual figure: it was in 2011 (+ 0.6%) was missing the sign ‘more’ in front of the annual GDP.
analysts’ reactions. In the light of the data, Paolo Mameli of Intesa comments that “the continued recovery, but has lost momentum during 2015″. Looking ahead, “we think that in 2016 the growth will be more similar to the pattern seen in the first three quarters of 2015 than in the year: we expect a still led by domestic demand recovery, although probably more by consumption than by investments “. For Citigroup, however, “it is likely a downward revision because there are downside risks to the average growth for 2016 partly because, simply, of a statistical effect.” The forecast of the bank’s business for this year was 1.3%, but do not rule out a downward retouching “around 1%.”
On the same wavelength Unicredit that the data is “disappointing, weaker than expected: we had estimated for the fourth quarter + 0.3% cyclical, rather it was a + 0.1%, and for 2015 an increase of 0.7% adjusted for calendar effects, against + 0.6% “given today by ISTAT. According to economist of Unicredit Loredana Federico “is likely to surprise resulting from a fall in investment, however, so now we expect a recovery,” but “the weak output in 2015″ resulted in a downward revision of the estimate of GDP for 2016 “by + 1.4% to + 1.2%.”
Eurostat added data at the aggregate level: in the fourth quarter of 2015, GDP in the euro area and the EU has increased by 0.3% compared to the previous three months. It is fairly stable numbers: in the third quarter was up by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Previous year, GDP increased by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU, after + 1.6% and + 1.9% respectively in the previous quarter.
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