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Rome, February 5 – ‘The leading indicator of the economy remains positive in November, although with an intensity’ more ‘subdued than in previous months, suggesting the continuation of the phase of moderate growth of the Italian economy’. The reports in the Italian economy Istat monthly Note. In particular, emphasizes the institute of Statistics’ economic prospects for households and businesses appear to evolve in different ways. For the former, the current levels of confidence are associated with the growth of disposable income, which contributes to the current period of low inflation. For business’, however, ‘not still reports a general increase in production rates in the presence of a deterioration in consumer confidence and a reduction in growth prospects’. – BUSINESS, NOT BACK TRUST: data available for the fourth quarter of 2015 show an evolution swinging the manufacturing sector. In November, the economic slowdown in industrial production and turnover (-0.5% and -1.1%) balanced out the increase recorded in October (+ 0.5% and + 1.9%). In January-November 2015 both indicators, measured on data adjusted for working days, report an increase of the attivita ‘production over the same period last year, more’ marked for industrial production (+ 1.1%) compared to revenues (+ 0.6%). The proportion of expanding industrial sectors based (see below) oscillates in the last months at levels somewhat higher than 50%. – FAMILIES, IMPROVE CONSUMPTION: in the third quarter of 2015 the purchasing power of households, measured net of inflation, and ‘increased by 1.4% from the previous quarter. The increased propensity to save (+ 0.9%) resulting from an increase in disposable income of households more ‘sustained than that of consumption (1.3% and 0.4% respectively). According to Istat, the information available for the fourth quarter suggest the continuation of the current phase of improvement in household consumption: in November, the volume of retail sales recorded a rise (+ 0.3%) driven by the growth of food (+ 0.8%). Further positive signs come from the moderate increase in consumer confidence in January weather (in contrast to the decrease recorded in the euro area). – LABOUR MARKET, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BRAKE: in January expectations by employers on employment in the next three months are back to deteriorate slightly in the manufacturing sector and in business while continuing to improve services. Seasonally adjusted figures for the month of December showing arrest of employment economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2015. However, the permanent employees continued to grow (+ 0.5%, 67,000 employees in more ‘in the same period) compared to a reduction of term employees (1.3%, 31,000 people less) and independent component (-1.1%, 62,000 employees less). In December, the unemployment rate and ‘at an altitude of 11.4% certificate. In particular, males unemployed returned to growth (+ 2.3%) resulting in a halt of the decline in the unemployment rate. In the fourth quarter, the reduction of the unemployed ‘was significant (-2.4%), mainly affecting women (-4.8%) than men (0.4%). In 2015 the index of negotiated wages per employee registered a 1.2% increase compared to 2014 (+ 1.6% in the private sector, and zero in the civil service). The rise and ‘was significantly more’ high in industry excluding construction (2.5%), than in services (0.9%). – WEAK INFLATION IN THE COMING MONTHS: according to the expectations of economic agents, in the coming months the inflation scenario is not mutera ‘significantly, with even marginally positive inflation. In manufacturing pricing policies remain cautious among manufacturers of consumer goods, while still prevail among consumers who expect established ‘or decrease in prices in the course of 2016. Earlier this year, consumer price inflation marked a shooting, still reaching out rhythms very content, conditioned by international deflationary context. According to preliminary estimates, in January the index for the entire community ‘national (Nic) recorded an annual increase of 0.3%, two tenths more’ than the end of 2015. The trend in prices continues to be influenced by the downward pressure of prices of raw materials, particularly oil. At the same time accentuates the deceleration in the growth rates for unprocessed food. Excluding the two most ‘volatile components, inflation back to 0.8%, a rate slightly higher than the average recorded over the past two years (0.7%). The upward pressure coming from both main components of the bottom, with inflation for non-energy industrial goods (+ 0.8% in January) that steadily recovering since the end of 2014, is higher than that of services confirmation. Along the price formation chain pressures remain weak. Producer prices for the domestic market closed 2015 with a still negative trend change (-4% in December); for non-food products for the domestic final consumption, the lists were only slightly above the level of late 2014. In the products imported some greater dynamism signal is found for consumer goods and particularly for durable goods, whose prices are gradually rising since the beginning of 2015 (+ 4.4% trend growth in November). .
5 February 2016
Archive 24H Economics
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