US unemployment falls to 4.9%, lowest level since February 2008 – The Republic

MILAN – still comes down unemployment in the US, despite disappoint the pace of creation of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector. The US economy added 151mila new employees in January, a clear deceleration from the previous month due in particular to the private education sector, transport and temporary workers. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting 190,000 new jobs in January with an unemployment rate – calcolto on a different statistical basis – stable at 5%, while according to the Labor Department, the unemployment fell to levels its lowest level since February 2008, when Lehman Brothers had not yet failed, namely 4.9%.

The decline in the US unemployment rate over the last two years

as for job creation, it was revised downwards the figure for December, which went from +292 to +262 thousand thousand units and reviewed upward November figure, which rose from +252 to +280 thousand thousand units. The hours worked rising by 0.1% to 34.6 a week, touching a pre-crisis peak. The labor force participation remains flat at 62.7%. As noted hot Filippo Diodovich Ig Markets is “very good data on the trend of wages”, an increase of 0.5% on a monthly basis, and on an annual basis by 2.5%. Expectations were much lower (respectively + 0.3% and + 2.2%).

The trend the creation of new jobs, on the previous month

the Americans have 7.8 million unemployed and the rate below 5% opens a dilemma for the Federal Reserve. The Central Bank Use it looks to full employment, which is precisely the rate at current levels. When people work, wages rise and this could generate inflationary pressures (and in this regard urges the increase of the salaries that we have seen). To combat them, they raise the rates, and it circulates less money. But the Fed, on the other hand, must hold off the international market tensions and the global economic slowdown, which is why now a rate hike in the next meeting is less and less quoted. In short, two opposing impulses that complicate navigation Janet Yellen.

According to Barclays analysts, who acknowledge the ambivalence of the publication on the Use Job, “does not change the view: we consider the US labor market and in health, on the contrary, the low recession risks “. The doubts come from the services sector, showing weakness, and differences between the two data probably will push the Fed to wait for further evidence before moving. Eventually, however, analysts expect the UK bank now only two rate hikes (in June and December) from the previous three.

the historical trend of the values ​​of
US unemployment

Year	G	F	M	A	M	G	L	A	S	O	N	D
2006	4.7	4.8	4, 7	4.7	4.6	4.6	4.7	4, 7	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.4
2007	4.6	4.5	4.4	4, 5	4.4	4.6	4.7	4.6	4, 7	4.7	4.7	5.0
2008	5.0	4.9	5.1	5.0	5, 4	5.6	5.8	6.1	6.1	6, 5	6.8	7.3
2009	7, 8	8.3	8.7	9.0	9.4	9 5	9.5	9.6	9.8	10.0	9 9	9.9
2010	9.8	9 8	9.9	9.9	9.6	9.4	9 4	9.5	9.5	9.4	9.8	9 3
2011	9.1	9.0	9 0	9.1	9.0	9.1	9.0	9 0	9.0	8.8	8.6	8.5
2012	8.3	8.3	8.2	8, 2	8.2	8.2	8.2	8.1	7, 8	7.8	7.7	7.9
2013	8.0	7.7	7.5	7.6	7, 5	7.5	7.3	7.3	7.3	7, 2	6.9	6.7
2014	6, 6	6.7	6.7	6.2	6.2	6, 1	6.2	6.2	6.0	5.7	5, 8	5.6
2015	5.7	5, 5	5.5	5.4	5.5	5.3	5, 3	5.1	5.1	5.0	5.0	5, 0
2016	4.9

Topics:

US unemployment

economic recovery

economic crisis

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