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This article was published February 6, 2016 at 8:13.
ROME
the barometer of the domestic economy continues to focus on the beautiful “though with an intensity more contained in previous months.” This is the commentary of the monthly economic Note Istat. This suggests that, in any case, “the continuation of the phase of moderate growth in the economy.” The fact is, explains the institute directed by George Breed, that the economic outlook of businesses and households are being developed in different ways.
For businesses, in fact, there is still a general increase in production rates; Indeed, the fourth quarter of the year just ended showed a fluctuating trend for the manufacturing sector. And “the uncertainty about the recovery in manufacturing activity is expected to expand in the coming months.” In fact, the orders recorded a decline of 1.8 percent in the quarter between September and November last. The reason is the strong reduction of foreign orders (-3.3%). In essence, then, the worsening climate in international trade begins to be felt. And the result is that even the sentiment of manufacturing enterprises has worsened in January, while in contrast it appears the construction sector, where, according to ISTAT, you begin to identify the first positive results: the production marked a strong rebound (+ 2.9%).
If the driver slows foreign trade, is more of the internal market. The Mayor remarked fact that in the third quarter of 2015 the purchasing power of households, net of inflation increased by 1.4% from the previous quarter. And the information on the fourth quarter suggest a further improvement in consumption, while in January 2016 was up also the climate of consumer confidence. In short, it is the families, at this time, to support domestic demand and it is the recovery of domestic demand, which should ensure the possibility to achieve the goal of development in 2016 that according to the Government will be around 1.6 per cent , according to Bank of Italy will arrive to 1.5 and according to the EU is expected to be 1.4 per cent. Not bad, though, especially when taking into account the economic performance of the years we have behind us.
That’s why the studies of Confcommercio office gives much emphasis to the value of its consumption indicator, which in December recorded an invariance with respect to the previous month and a 1.7% trend growth, but that, above all, the whole of 2015, “the ICC had a 1.6% growth, the first since 2007 ‘. In short, they were eight years not seen an increase like this: to be exact, the growth in consumption of goods in the year marked a + 1.7% and that of services rose by 1.3%, while in Overall in 2014 there has been a 0.5% decline. The merchants association does not fail to point out, however, that the improvement in the struggling consumer confidence yet to translate into a real recovery in demand. And remember that the crisis of recent years has resulted not only in a decline in consumption, but also in an erosion of precautionary savings and a significant reduction of the traditional form of investment of households, house purchase.
at this time, it is observed, it is likely that families are seeking forms of rebalancing between consumption, savings and investment, and that only in the coming months consumption will start growing at a faster rate. The research will also remember that in December employment showed a modest reduction on a monthly basis (-21,000 units) and an increase in respect for the same month in 2014 (+109,000 units), but that, on the whole of 2015, the employment increased by 176,000 units. In detail, the consumption in 2015 grew especially in goods and services for mobility (+ 7% compared to + 0.2% in 2014) and for communications goods and services (+ 3.3% compared with +1 , 9% in 2014) but also in recreational goods and services (+ 1.1% against -0.2% in 2014). In the sector hotels and eating out there is a + 1.3% (-0.3% in 2014) while in the foodstuffs and drinks the change was nothing, after -1.1% in 2014. In the field clothing and footwear, there was a recovery, with an increase of 0.9% compared to 0.8% recorded in 2014.
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