More savings than consumption – BBC

Data istat

Milan , February 5, 2016 – 21:06

After the European Commission, also Istat brakes: the Italian economy will grow slower than expected, explains the widespread monthly Note yesterday by the Institute of statistics. The uncertainties that weigh on the international stage are reflected negatively on the prospects of exports and the increase in consumption seems to leave room for a reconstitution of the eroded savings during the recession. Last year, the slight recovery of 0.8% of gross domestic product (0.7% by correcting the data for calendar effects, according to estimates by the Bank of Italy) there was really due to increased domestic demand It is offsetting the decline in foreign demand (the total exports dropped by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the second). This year the foreign trade picture looks uncertain. Underlines the Istat that the prospects of manufacturing in the coming months weigh the “deep reductions in foreign orders (-3.3%) recorded in the quarter from September to November.”

Salt disposable income

it will be even more domestic demand to make up and drive growth. To promote consumption is the growth of disposable income of households, due to the increase in employment, improvement of negotiated wages (+ 1.2% in 2015 compared to 2014) and to price stability. The purchasing power after inflation, the statement said, therefore rose by 1.4% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the previous year. But that extra income was used more on the savings side, increased by 0.9% in the third quarter, and on that of consumption, which grew by 0.4%. The savings rate, the traditional Italian strength, is then going up towards 10%, from a minimum of 7% reached in 2012 – when families have faced the recession precisely by putting his hand to the savings – but still far from the 12-13% of pre-crisis levels.

For the EU growth will be 1.4%

In this framework, concluded the Mayor,” the prospects of households and businesses appear to evolve differently. While the first expected continued growth in disposable income, which contributes to the current phase of low inflation, for companies not yet noted a general increase in production rates, in the presence of a deterioration in confidence and a reduction in growth prospects. ” The increase in GDP forecasts remain positive, “but with an intensity smaller than in previous months.” Which would lead to the conclusion, in fact, that the government estimate of GDP to 1.6% this year needs to be reduced to a few decimal point (the european commission says 1.4%). Even the office studies of Confcommercio, which yesterday released data on the indicator of consumption, which for the first time since 2007 marked an increase (+ 1.6% in 2015), agrees that “families are trying forms of rebalancing between consumption, savings and investment. ” After all the uncertainty factors are many: how long will inflation to zero, oil minimum, the favorable exchange rate, low interest rates on mortgages? The same expansionary fiscal policy seems close to an end, if Brussels will not grant other flexibility margins. Those granted so far and what the government with some gambling has taken have allowed us to move from recession to ripresina. But remains fragile.

5 February 2016 (edited February 6, 2016 | 09:49)

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