Confcommercio: in 2016 GDP at 1.6% thanks to consumption, but you risk a downward revision – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published March 18, 2016 at 12:34.

CERNOBBIO – from Cernobbio blows a wind of cautious optimism on the Italian economy. Confcommercio plans for this year and for the next 1.6% of GDP, but the figure of 2016 there is the risk of a downward revision. To give momentum are the estimates of consumption growth (+ 1.4% and + 1.7% respectively) and a sufficiently sustained growth in gross fixed investment (+ 3.0% and +3.7). The new estimates have been spread today by the Confcommercio study – the start of the Forum held in Cernobbio – who also calculated how Italy would gain if it was free from its traditional traps and snares: the recovery would be less than 16 points GDP to 230 billion. “All right, the Dragons cortisone, and thank goodness that is there, but we need specific therapies that depend only on us,” he said at the opening of the forum president of Confcommercio Carlo Sangalli.

the forecast of GDP
the growth for 2016 of 1.6% of GDP will be supported as mentioned above by consumption and investment. For consumption it is expected growth of 1.4%, against 1.1% in 2015, while gross fixed investment is expected to rise by 3%, compared to 0.8% last year. Always stop inflation, 0.2% per annum compared with 0.1% in 2015. According to the director, Mariano Bella, 2016 “presents a puzzle of difficult composition information: the confidence of households and businesses remain on maximum, the consumption in January appear weak, the employment data are positive, “while” deflation appears more a theoretical danger that a real threat. ” Trends “should strengthen moderately in the next year – adds Beautiful -. There is nothing extraordinary and nothing to cheer about, with particular emphasis on the eventual realization of this macroeconomic framework. ”

tax cut remains priority
How would gain our economy if all regions had the bureaucracy of the Valle d’Aosta, the legality index del Trentino, l ‘ accessibility of infrastructure and human capital of the Piedmont of Lombardy? According Confcommercio in terms of GDP recovery would take consistency stratospheric amounts to around 230 billion euro, with a jump of more than 16 percent of GDP. But this is an “exercise in fantasy,” says Confcommercio, which emphasizes that these adjustments would require years of
time and in some cases are difficult to reach. In any case if there were improvements more plausible, however, GDP would grow by 3.2% to approximately 45.3 billion.

For Confcommercio reduce the tax burden on firms and households is and remains the priority: “That’s the bet that we ask the government to do – says Sangalli – starting, first of all, by a commitment of fiscal policy Preventing that snap the safeguard clauses’. For the President of Confcommercio must allocate to the reduction Irpef all resources from cutting the unproductive public spending, the elimination of waste and inefficiency and the evasion and avoidance recovery, “including, of course, everything that can result from ‘ use of flexibility margins in Europe. Less government spending and less taxes, then, is the recipe for a more dynamic and fairer country. ”

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