The complaint of Confcommercio: “The bureaucracy costs 230 billion GDP” – The Republic

MILAN – Without the brakes posed by excessive bureaucracy, lawlessness, the defects of accessibility and human capital, Italy would receive benefits for 230 billion euro, with a leap of 16% of GDP. And ‘the estimate’s studies of the widespread Confcommercio to Cernobbio Forum, which – however – only considers the best regional performance in various items, obtained from Valle d’Aosta, Trentino, Lombardy and Piedmont, calculating the effects of the removal of the gap various regions if the values ​​complied with the best practices: “We’re in an exercise of imagination – recognizes the study – though sensible. These adjustments would take years of time and in some cases are difficult to reach a limit.”

Confcommercio therefore proposes a alternative calculation “much more attainable in a short time compared to the first” based on an adjustment of 5% of the parameters of accessibility, bureaucracy and law and a 1% growth in human capital. The exercise would benefit 45.3 billion euro, an increase of 3.2% GDP: 750 € per person for each of the 60 million or more of Italian citizens (about 1,800 euro per family).

For 2016 the association of traders expected a 1.6% GDP growth, driven by consumption and investment, but the data exists the risk of a downward revision. For consumption it is expected growth of 1.4%, against 1.1% in 2015, while gross fixed investment is expected to rise by 3%, compared to 0.8% last year. Always stop inflation, 0.2% per annum compared with 0.1% in 2015.

According to the director, Mariano Bella, 2016 “presents a puzzle of difficult composition information: the trust of families and businesses remain on maximum, consumption in January appear weak, the employment data are positive, “while” deflation appears more a theoretical danger that a real threat. ” According Beautiful growth of 3% of investments “is not at all optimistic. The decline in the recent past are of exceptional size, therefore a modest recovery in investment is physiological.” Trends “should increase moderately in the next year. There is nothing extraordinary and nothing to cheer about, with particular emphasis on the eventual realization of this macroeconomic framework”. For 2017 it is expected + 1.6% of GDP, 1.7% of consumption, 3.7% of investments.

Topics:

Confcommercio

GDP

bureaucracy

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