MILAN – A few hours in the Council of Ministers to approve the Def, the Document of Economics and Finance which contains forecasts on economic Italy , the public finance objectives and major reforms in the pipeline for the coming years. The government has made an appointment in the late afternoon to take note, first of all, the slowdown in the recovery: the forecast of a 1.6% of GDP in 2016, contained in the update Def 2015 last September, will be revised downwards to 1.2%, before moving to 1.4% for 2017 (again by +1.6%). from the draft that will enter the Council of Ministers, about which Palazzo Chigi brakes and asks to wait until the official presentation tonight, in addition to the reduction of growth estimates, the most important innovation concerns the identification of the debt levels. For this year, a meeting point with the EU Commission is with a deficit of 2.3% of the product, which is halfway between the 2.2% indicated in the fall and 2.4% would be reached occupying all the space linked to the now famous “flexibility clause” for migrants (0.2 percent of GDP, about 3 billion). This result is achieved thanks to an administrative adjustment: do not serve maneuvers blood and tears, enough savings on interest expenditure (thanks to the ECB) and windfalls related to the return of capital (voluntary disclosure) to file a bit ‘debt . But in the folds of the document, as explained by Republic on newsstands, is also the implicit request for greater flexibility for next year. The reference is to the indication of a deficit / GDP 1.8%. This is a correction of the accounts less than 1.1% originally planned. On the other hand, reach that level would require a monstrous effort to Italy, when you consider that just to turn off the safeguard clauses (in fact VAT increases) that automatically snap from next January are to take into account about 15 billion in Budget law of 2017. Well, despite the flexibility is theoretically granted for one year only (and Italy has exploited in 2016), the extraordinary factors related to refugee flows and the safety requirements after the ‘ annus horribilis of terrorism could give more leeway to the Peninsula. A concession that could be approved at all from Brussels in May, when will come the final judgment on the EU Stability in 2016 along with the update of the macro forecast. Finally, as regards the expansionary measures, large space will be given to businesses, with a measure flight of its launch for May and that should be worth a + 0.2% of GDP, as announced by Padoan. Expected the elimination of the tax on capital gains and support measures for investments in unlisted companies and relief on profits reinvested. Finally Central will need to hold off the debt, estimated by the Commission to 132.4% this year; indication also accepted by the government, according to the draft, which therefore revises upwards the levels of last fall. Just to speed up the contenumento debt path, made more difficult by the rock of deflation, should regain the momentum of the privatization program: the hypo Fs has been postponed until a later date and you are thinking to replace it with a new marketing of Italian Poste actions. All this could change, however – at least in 2016 – the forecasts on receipts. The commitment to debt reduction still remains and Def will still have there be proof. source: Report to Parliament, September. 2015
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(note update of Def, September 2015) GDP (% change) 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 Inflation (% chg) 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 – Unemployment (%) 12.2 11.9 11.3 10.7 10.2 Deficit / GDP (%) -2.6 -2.2 * – 1.1 -0.2 0.3 Balance strutt./Pil (%) -0.7 -0.3 0 0 – Debt / GDP (%) 132.8 131.4 127.9 123.7 119.8
* The deficit / GDP in 2016 rising to 2.4% considering the flexibility clause on migrants
- Topics:
- Def 2016
- public accounts
- Deficit / GDP
- debt / GDP
- flexibility
- Starring:
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