In 2016, the Italian GDP will amount to 1.2% (against previous estimate of + 1.6% ), and then accelerate in the following years. It reads a draft of Def, the ANSA has seen. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2017, 1.5% in 2018 and finally 1.4% in 2019.
debt Italian public will fall in 2016 to 132.4% from 132.7% of GDP in 2015. the expected drop in the September update note was more pronounced, with a debit to forecast this year 131.4%. “The reversal of debt dynamics – says the premise of the document signed by Pier Carlo Padoan that this afternoon will arrive in the Council of Ministers – is a strategic objective of the government.”
In 2016, the GDP deficit ratio will fall from 2.6% to 2.3% . We read it in a Def draft of which ANSA has read. In the following years additional budgetary space “will be generated by higher revenues and cost savings, achieved through an expansion of the spending review process.” In this way, the deficit will drop to 1.8% in 2017, reaching “a slight surplus” in 2019
accounts Counterproductive restrictive policy – “The government considers it inappropriate and counterproductive to adopt a narrower pitch of fiscal policy “. You read it in the introduction to the draft Def. The premise is signed by Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who points out, in addition to the risks of deflation and to ” inadequate coordination of fiscal policies, “EU, even” perverse “effects of too restrictive maneuvers, that could end up worse, instead of improving, the path of adjustment of debt.
Eve filings – the filing work is still ongoing, with technical meetings that have taken place until the last in the rooms of the Treasury, but the meeting between Matteo Renzi and Pier Carlo Padoan at Palazzo Chigi yesterday afternoon was probably decisive for developing the finishing touches. The new Document of Economics and Finance, to be presented in Europe accompanied by the National Plan of reforms, it will contain the updated macroeconomic estimates of four, with almost inevitable downward revisions to GDP. After a 2015 ended below expectations, although the initial estimate of a 1.6% growth this year will not be centered.
The world economic recovery is proving to be extremely lower than hoped until recently, inflation in Europe is still unable to start, investments and even struggling Italy it is experiencing the consequences. The new fork of increase in GDP seems to be between 1.2% and 1.4%, but the downward revision will not result, as repeatedly stated by representatives of the Treasury, the need for an additional operation. The budgetary adjustment to safeguard the deficit will in fact be purely administrative and resources reperiranno from surplus revenue coming from voluntary disclosure and the decline in interest on the debt. Just the debt, however, remains one of the sorrowful notes. Not just because deflation weighs a ton on statistical calculations, but also because the process of privatization, with financial markets under extreme difficulty, not on the schedule. The hypo Fs has been postponed until a later date and to replace it you are thinking of a new marketing of the Italian Post Office actions. All this could change, however – at least in 2016 – the forecasts on receipts.
The commitment to debt reduction still remains and Def will still have there be proof. Separate discussion instead on 2017. For next year, the government has already promised the IRES cut (in black and white on the 2016 Stability Law) and defusing more than 15 billion of safeguard clauses on VAT. Ensuring these two moves, leaving the deficit-GDP ratio from the current 1.1% estimate seems virtually impossible. And that’s why probably Italy will return to the office in Europe, asking new margins of flexibility, justified with the reforms, and – if they will convince Brussels – with the new calculations of potential growth and output gap. Meanwhile, positive news comes from the placement of the Italian BTP, testifying that the Italian debt ‘like’ to the markets. The Treasury has in fact received orders for 8 billion euro for the new issue, the ninth, of which 4.2 billion on retail segment, that of private investors.
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