Sunday, April 3, 2016
It emerges as a very alarming: INPS because of Enpals pensions and Inpdap has a hole in the accounts of one hundred billion Euros. This amounted to over 11 billion a year the budget loss that INPS records regularly since 2012 (the year he built Enpals and Inpdap), and estimates to record even at the end of 2016. Shareholders’ equity of INPS , that five years ago it measured more than 40 billion euro, it is now directed towards the complete erosion and with it even the 21 billion euro collected through an extraordinary intervention of settlement of losses dating back to two years ago. And ‘what emerges from an analysis of Impresalavoro Studies Center.
At year-end accounts of the Institute might even be worse, primarily because for the years 2015 and 2016 the deficit is still a forecast, and in the past the final showed the much greater losses than initially budgeted. Although the data for once resulted in line with expectations, the equity photographed at December 31, 2016 should not be more than 1.8 billion with the substantial imminent need for an additional shelf by the state.
In particular, there is a cost that the INPS has so far always regularly underestimated in its budgets: that resulting from the write-down of receivables, ie that part of the contributions that the institution will initially expected to collect but which in fact is lost. The phenomenon-we read in the study- it is due to several causes: a part of the Dodgers, going by the case of bankrupt or liquidated debtors or died without heirs who have accepted the inheritance to that of credits lapsed or for which it is ascertained that there are no.
to give an idea of the size of the problem, not the mass of contributions received should exceed at year end for the first time the share of 100 billion, growing at a rate in the meantime average of 740 million euro per month (a long-standing trend). The so their exact amount would exceed 104 billion, of which more than half (56.3) underwent devaluation.
They are catastrophic figures, if this trend is not stopped, short INPS declare bankruptcy, but “balancing accounts”. For the public part, that is, than public employees who retired for which the Italian state has never set aside pension contributions, INPS is bankrupt.
One of the most sensitive aspects, detects ImpersaLavoro, it is the estimate of how many credits will be effectively collected and how many instead INPS will inevitably have to throw in the towel. To date writedowns planned or carried out are essentially based on two well-defined parameters: the first is the year the credit reference (the further away in time and the smaller the chance to recover); the second is the specific management to which it refers (for some administrations the recovery is more difficult than in others).
Impresalavoro found that in the last few budgets these criteria have been revised downward. Those dating back to 2009, regardless of the management which they relate (42800000000 seconds to the latest data available), are written down to 99%, thus recognizing the substantial non-recoverable items unless entirely sporadic episodes and then tartta a real gap INPS in the financial accounts. For the next three years the devaluation is 55% for management employees and agricultural, while it is 30% for craftsmen and traders and is limited to 10% for separate management. Loans for the last three years has proposed an average of 10% devaluation.
The severity of the estimates is increasing both for the parameters used (much more pessimistic than the last final), both by the fact materially debt recovery does not seem so far managed to sustain them: from year to year the volume of uncollected contributions grows and grows well at the same time the share that the INPS must set aside to the fund devaluation.
Impresalavoro observes in fact that the accounts which show the lowest chances of recovery are the most relevant: 56.7 billion of uncollected receivables (54.3% of the total) relate to management of employees (including temporary benefits) while in minority are those of traders (20.7%) and craftsmen (15.3%). Only 2.3% of the loss of revenue (and aging of receivables rather low) weighs the separate preparation of quasi-employees and self-employed.
The framework put in light Impresalavoro is chilling.
Drafting Milan
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