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This article was published April 5, 2016 at 10:54 am.
in the first quarter of the year will continue the recovery phase of the economic activity. The notes Istat in the monthly notice on the Italian economy. The Institute emphasizes that moderate growth will continue despite in January there was a “strong deceleration” composite leading indicator of the economy. In March, Istat had estimated a cyclical change in real GDP expected for the first quarter slightly positive (+ 0.1%), with a confidence interval of between -0.1% and + 0.3%.
Istat: elements of uncertainty, moderate growth in the first quarter
the Italian economy according to ISTAT, “continues to present some elements of uncertainty on the side of the thrusts to the growth of ‘ supply of goods and services. ” Instead, “the demand side – it says – the uncertainties related to the evolution of world trade is accompanied by the stability of the growth in consumption and investment in early recovery. In this framework, the composite leading indicator Italian economy remains positive, suggesting the continuation of moderate growth phase in the first quarter. ”
positive employment signals, optimistic entrepreneurs
After the slight increase in unemployment and the decrease in the number of employed in February, ‘moderately positive signs for developments in the coming months they come from the expectations expressed by entrepreneurs in March (for the following quarter), an improvement in manufacturing and trade, stable in construction and services. ”
Expected continuing deflationary phase
The Mayor also noted that the economic agents ‘expectations on price developments show a deterioration in March, signaling the possible continuation of’ current deflationary phase. The downward correction, continues the statistical office, appears very pronounced for consumers, with nearly two-thirds involving prices stable or declining.
Industrial production fluctuating
Istat noted that in recent months the production of the manufacturing sector has shown tentative signs. In January, there was a jump in industrial activity (+ 1.9% compared to December 2015). The increase, however, is decidedly more moderate (+ 0.2%) when considering the average of the last three months (November-January) from the previous quarter. In the value indicators appear to confirm the fragility of the current phase of the manufacturing sector. In January, the industry turnover registered an economic growth of 1%. On average the past three months, however, the overall index decreased by 0.6%. Positive signals were received by the industry’s order,
increased both in January (+ 0.7% on a cyclical basis) and, to a greater extent, in the average of the last three months (+ 2.1%).
the difficult investment recovery
ins Lastly, overall, the reduction in Italian investments in the period of crisis was markedly higher than that of the other major European countries. Placing 100 average asset in 2011, at the end of 2015 Germany and Spain showed the levels may exceed that amount, France oscillated around 100 while Italian level was approximately 85. The fall of Italian investments involved with similar intensity both buildings is the machinery. According to Istat the strengthening of the Italian recovery is inextricably linked to long-term growth investments. The latest data on firms seem to support the hypothesis of a cyclical improvement: although in the fourth quarter, the investment rate of non-financial corporations remained at historically low levels (18.3%), the economic change in investments has increased 1%.
In addition, recent measures contained in the (super amortization) stability law, the improvement of credit conditions for companies and supporting investment projects in infrastructure and innovation Juncker plan (Italy is in fact , along with France and the UK, among the biggest beneficiaries of the Juncker plan in the area of transport and innovation) are additional elements to support the expectations of a recovery of the capital accumulation process.
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