Italian tile on the economy, the IMF cuts 2016 GDP growth forecast to between + 1% and rising debt – TGCOM

inconsistent data with Def: Also increases the debt – The Italian debt is set to rise in 2016 to 133% of GDP, from 132.6% in 2015 . According to the IMF, the debt will fall to 131.7% in 2017, to stand at 121.6% in 2021. the debt in Def is estimated to decline to 132.4% in 2016 before falling again to 130.9 % in 2017.

the salt deficit of 2.7% – the Italian deficit will rise this year to 2.7% from 2.6% in 2015. the technical of IMF estimates a 1.6% decline only in 2017. in Def instead the deficit is estimated at 2.3% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017.

the Italian unemployment rate remains above the EU average – Although the Italian unemployment rate will remain at double-digit declines marginally: will amount to 1.4% in 2016 compared to 11.9% in 2015 while in 2017 to 10.9%. But it is higher than the euro area average (10.3% in 2016 and 9.9% in 2017). Double-digit unemployment in France, where the rate stood at 10.1% in 2016 and 10.0% in 2017.

Down also the growth of the euro and the dollar – Europe and the US grow less than expected. The IMF cuts economic growth forecast for the euro area to 1.5% in 2016 and + 1.6% in 2017, respectively 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points lower than forecast in January. The US GDP will grow this year by 2.4% (-0.2 points) and next by 2.5% (-0.1 points).

Advanced economies trudging, they best emerging – Overall, the advanced economies will grow by 1.9% in 2016 and 2% in 2017, compared with 4.1% for this year and 4.6% next emerging economies .

Down the world’s GDP, “we risk a secular stagnation” – the IMF cuts global growth forecast and said that “the global recovery continues but increasingly slow and fragile “. The trend is “too slow” now “too long”. “There remain significant downside risks”, including that of slipping into a “secular stagnation” . The world GDP will grow this year by 3.2% in fact, that is 0.2 percentage points lower than forecast in January. In 2017, the growth will accelerate to 3.5% (-0.1 percentage points).

The Chinese economy grows more than expected – The Chinese economy grows more than expected . The GDP of the Dragon will rise this year by 6.5%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the estimates of January. It is estimated an increase of 6.2% in 2017 (+0.2). Continues its course even India, whose GDP remains confirmed at + 7.5% both this year and next. Russia and Brazil instead of holding back. Russia’s GDP will contract in 2016 by 1.8% (-0.8 points), to return to growth of 0.8% in 2017 (-0.2). The Brazilian economy will contract this year by 3.8% (-0.3 points) and will remain steady, as expected previously, in 2017.

Terrorism, wars, refugee flows weigh on global growth – The IMF still cites global tensions due to political clashes, terrorism and refugee flows that could have “significant impact” on global economic activity.

The decline oil might instead be a push – on the contrary, it could be a driving factor in the growth of the drop of oil, whose flip side is that of a possible revival of consumer spending in the importing countries.