The IMF fears the risk Brexit. Cut the estimates on Italy – La Repubblica

MILAN – Brexit Risk and “secular stagnation”. The spring forecast of the International Monetary Fund reveal all threats down to the global economy by focusing on the possibility that the referendum of June decrees the release of the UK from the European Union. Also why the Washington economists call on governments to prepare anti-shock contingency plans.

To make the cost of the overall situation is sorpattutto Italy which sees its growth forecast again cut for 2016 and 2017: despite predictions of the government published last Friday, in the World Economic Outlook, the IMF expects growth of 1% this year against 1.3% estimated in January, and by 1.1% in 2017 (1.2 %). The government, however, is hopeful of a 1.2% net of “downside risks” that could change the trend of GDP. To weigh, in particular, are bank loans.

In terms of the deficit, then, the Fund expects Italy a deficit / GDP to 2.7% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017, while the structural budget balance is expected in 2021. the debt is estimated at 133% of GDP in 2016, to 131.7% in 2017 and 121.6% in 2021. the Washington economists also predict inflation steady at 0.2% at year-end with a slightly accelerated to 0.7% in 2017, while unemployment will drop to 11.4% in 2016 (from 11.9% in 2015) and at 10, 9% next year. From a tax policy perspective, however, the IMF expects “some expansionary measures”, as well as Canada, Germany and the US, in the face of a “total neutrality policy” in the advanced economies and “restrictive in Japan, Spain and the UK .

‘

EU Commission, the government and the IMF: the predictions

	2015			2016			2017
	EU	Def	IMF	EU	Def	IMF	EU	Def	IMF
GDP (% change)	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.4	1.2	1	1.3	1.4	1.1
Deficit / GDP	-3	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.3	2.7	-2.5	1.8	1.6
Debt / GDP	132.8	132.7	132.6	132.4	132.4	133	130.6	130.9	131.7
unemployment	11.9	11.9	12.2	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.3	10.8	10.9
Inflation	0.1	0.1	0	0.3	0.2	0.2	1, 3	1.3	0.7

under the ax of the international Monetary Fund does not end however, only Italy: to risk is the global growth due to increased downside risks, including that of a “secular stagnation.” The IMF indicates an increase in world GDP to 3.2% in 2016 from 3.1% in 2015, compared with 3.4% previously estimated. For 2017, however, the overall increase was revised to 3.5% from 3.6%: “The continued growth, but at a more satisfactory pace, leaving the world most exposed to downside risks,” warns the head Fund economist, Maurice Obstfeld.

the GDP Set has been revised down in 2016 to + 2.4% (+ 2.6% the previous estimates) and + 2.5% 2017 (+ 2.6%). In the euro area, “the recovery was generally in line with expectations in January – is stressed in the report – because the strengthening of domestic demand offset the weakness of external stimuli. Among the countries, growth was weaker than expected in Italy, but in Spain the recovery has been stronger. ” Washington’s economists also foresee a contraction in GDP in Russia amounted to 1.8% this year (-0.8% compared to January) while estimates for China, virtually unique in the world, the prospects have improved with GDP revised upwards by 0.2% both this year and both in 2017, respectively + 6.5% and + 6.2%.

Eurozone. The International Monetary Fund has also adjusted downwards its estimates on the rate of euro-area development, pointing out that the growth “was weaker than expected in Italy, while the recovery was strongest in Spain”. The estimate on the Euroland GDP was cut to 1.5% for 2016 and 1.6% for 2017 (compared with 1.7% previously indicated for both years, and against a growth rate equal to ‘ 1.6% in 2015). “The recovery was generally in line with the January forecast the euro area – is stressed in the report – because the strengthening of domestic demand offset the weakness of external stimuli”. Estimates of the German GDP were cut by 0.2% to 1.5% for 2016 and 0.1% to 1.6% for 2017. For France, the expectations are for a GDP at ‘ 1.1% in 2016 (-0.2% compared to January) and 1.3% (-0.2%). In Spain, the growth has been revised downwards to 2.6% this year (-0.1%) and confirmed at 2.3% next year.

Brexit. A ” Brexit “- warn Washington economists – could cause” a serious regional and global damage jeopardizing commercial relationships formed. ” According to the IMF, the referendum scheduled in June on possible release of the UK from the European Union has “already created uncertainty for investors.” The revolt “against the global economic integration is likely to block, if not reverse, the post-war trend and even more open trade relations”, underline the experts of the Fund and emphasized that the phenomenon does not concern only Europe but also the United States .

Shock. The IMF then launches an alert to governments to prepare anti-shock plans seen that the recovery is likely to derail. The “Governments must not ignore the need to prepare for possible adverse scenarios – warns the chief IMF economist – identifying packages of structural and fiscal policies, able to support each other, to be deployed in case downside risks materialize in the future.” In this context, “governments need to focus on two tasks” precise Obstfeld. The first is “strengthening growth”, important in itself but also as an antidote against downside risks. “The second task – he continued – is to prepare emergency plans, there is not much room for error.”

ECB. The IMF therefore urges the European Central Bank to maintain an accommodative monetary policy to cope with the low inflation and weak growth. Also why the Fund Welcomes the asset purchase program by the Eurotower as part of quantitative easing that has “sustained recovery, improving confidence and financial conditions.” The recent measures announced by Governor Mario Draghi “is appropriate,” say the economists, and also improve the financing of the real economy banks.

Migrants. The crisis of refugees and migrants is a “humanitarian catastrophe” that is undermining the very essence of the European Union. Supports the IMF that “the persistent and violent instability in a number of countries, and in particular Syria, sinking their economies, prompting millions of refugees in neighboring countries as well as Europe,” stressed the head Obstfeld economist.