Saturday, June 11, 2016

Berlin against Brexit, Bund toward zero – Il Sole 24 Ore

The German government is mobilized against the hypothesis of Brexit, sending some warnings to British voters, if they choose the European Union’s output in the referendum of June 23, but it also warns the repercussions for European integration. It is not said, however, that, given the sensitivity of the British public to the interventions by Germany, the simultaneous statements of all the most outstanding exponents of the Berlin government does not end up being counterproductive.

Germany located in the forefront also in the financial markets: the Brexit fears of instability and other dangers, leading investors to seek safe havens such as German government bonds, have driven down the yield of the 10-year Bund to almost zero, until to a low of 0.011%.

the President of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, has meanwhile reiterated his warning that a long period of official interest rates very low European central Bank may create the risk of a ‘sudden turnaround in yields with the increase in the risk premium. Weidmann said he would not be in favor of a dual mandate for the central bank, inflation and financial stability, but it is not possible for the monetary authorities can ignore the accumulation of financial imbalances. The Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, in turn, argued that the low rates should be a temporary phenomenon.

On Brexit if Chancellor Angela Merkel has been limited to support diplomatically that “remain in the EU would be the best solution “and that cooperation with London on many international issues would continue, Schaeuble, as more and more blood, warned that if Britain were to choose to leave the European Union, other countries may decide to follow suit. “What will they do for example the Dutch?”, Which usually are close to London’s position, asked the minister in an interview with the weekly “Der Spiegel”, which, in a cover entirely occupied by the Union Jack, asks “Please don ‘ t go “, please do not go away.

Schaeuble argued that other countries in the EU are preparing for every possible scenario to contain the damage of a possible Brexit. In recent days, in an interview on French TV, France 24, Benoit Coeuré, the member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank responsible for markets, said that the ECB is ready to act with the necessary liquidity in the event the referendum result British create turbulence in the financial markets.

For Schaeuble, however, the EU is able to function even without the United Kingdom and to suffer the most damage output of London would be just the British economy. “It would be a miracle if this does not happen,” he noted. The responsible German Finance is, however, convinced that the response of the other EU countries can not simply be greater integration, as many ask, but that the outcome of the vote should be “a warning and an alarm clock” that you can not continue to do things in Europe as we have done so far.

the dean of German policy, which has been at the forefront for Germany in all European discussions of recent years, although in some cases, such as the Greek crisis, has seen its tilted position by Chancellor Merkel, hopes that “in the end the British decide in wise way,” but that should not expect, after the exit, to continue to have access to the European single market, as if nothing had, along the lines of what happens to countries like Norway and Switzerland. “The UK should follow in this case the rules of a club from which you wanted to get out. Inside is inside and out is out, ‘he said bluntly. It is not the first time that Schaeuble, who has always declared his preference for Britain staying in the EU, warns the electorate across the Channel for the consequences of a choice for Brexit.

Concern German for the London possible exit from the EU was also underlined by the Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who claimed that would plunge Europe into a “deep crisis.” It is unrealistic, he said, in line with the position Schaeuble, thinking that integration can proceed smoothly. “One of the reasons – said the foreign minister to an audience of over 300 entrepreneurs of family businesses – is that many of the arguments that we hear in the debate on Brexit have spread to other EU countries.” Steinmeier also mentioned that in the negotiation of February, the British Prime Minister David Cameron has popped up several concessions, among other things, on the subject of immigration, one of the most debated of the referendum campaign.

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