MILAN – 13:00. Bags back on profit taking after the rally earlier this week with investors now believe that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at its meeting on 14 and 15 June next, after the disappointing US employment report last Friday in May and speech of governor Janet Yellen on Monday. Milan yields 0.3%, London back on equality, while Frankfurt and Paris move back 0.5 % and 0.4%
on the other hand the risk Brexit is feared especially after the latest polls according to which the favorable output of London by the EU would be in the majority. Yesterday he reiterated – markets closed – the World Bank has also cut its global growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.4%: the decision is mainly due to the weak momentum in the advanced economies, the prices of raw materials remain low, a weak global trade and capital flows declining.
to confirm these concerns data export and Chinese imports also came , which in May have slipped still following the weakness of the global and the domestic demand and have sold on an annual basis, respectively 4.1% (to 181.1 billion dollars) and 0.4% (to 131.1 billion): the surplus , according to data released by the Customs, it amounted to 50 billion from 45.6 in April (-1.8% -10.9% and exports and imports). Commercial weakness might then require more economic stimulus, since Beijing is struggling with the reorganization and with the intention to move the main pillars of export and manufacturing to services and consumption. Growth in the first quarter fell to 6.9%, the lowest since the crisis of Lehman Brothers in 2008, while the IMF estimates a further decline in annual GDP to + 6.5%. positive signs, however, came from the Japan where GDP grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2016: in the first three months of the year the economy rose by 0.5% on the previous quarter and 1.9% on an annual basis. Preliminary data showed an increase of respectively 0.4% and 1.7 percent. Slowdown, however, in France where the central bank has estimated a limited GDP growth to 0.2% from 0.3% the previous estimate. For the full year the institute estimated a growth of product by 1.4% against a forecast of 1.5% of the government in Paris. On the other hand, the superindex OECD for the month of April, continues to detect “a stable growth” for the whole of the euro, and for Germany and France, but “a weakening of growth “in Italy and Great Britain. In Britain, the April industrial production increased 2% monthly and 1.6% on year.
The Chinese data suggest that “things have stabilized, then the situation has improved compared a few months ago, but it does not mean that the markets will return to grow unabated, “says Hong Kong, Khiem do of Baring Asset Management which states that” the majority of investors will remain cautious. ” Yet global stock exchanges are the highest of the year with a inziato recovery in February with the commodity recovery. Also there waiting for the start purchasing corporate bonds (corporate bonds) by the ECB : an operation aimed at further increasing the liquidity in circulation in the eurozone to boost demand, cut the cost of borrowing and charges down the inflation. From today, in fact, the bonds come in the plan of purchases of 80 billion Euros per month: analysts expect purchases for at least 5 billion a month and a figure below the three billion would be “disappointing”. On the other hand only in May – according to data from Bloomberg – bonds were issued for 50 billion euro.
Little blur the spread , the yield difference between Bund and BTP stationed just subassemblies 135 basis points with the Italian ten-year secondary market makes 1.39%. Recovering the ‘ € with the greenback receding while decreasing expectations for a US rate hike in June and is expected to breach the Boj, who will decide next week: the European currency is changing hand $ 1.137 and 121.85 yen.
in the morning, the Nikkei index of Tokyo Stock Exchange closed in advance of 0.93% in the wake of the upward revision of GDP. Sitting countered, last night, for Wall Street finished far from the peaks reached during the, when the Dow Jones had regained the psychological threshold of 18 thousand points for the first time since last April. Despite losing enamel, however, the S & amp; P 500 managed to return to the levels of last July. The Dow Jones has so closed up 0.1% to 17,938.28 points; the S & amp; P 500 added 0.13%, to 2112.13 points; while the Nasdaq composite has yielded 0.14%, to 4961.75 points.
In terms of raw materials, the price of oil remains above $ 50 touched Tuesday , remaining at the highest of the last 11 months. Crude WTI Texas quota thus $ 50.49 driven by the drop in production in the United States. Earn some positions Brent reaching $ 51.5 per barrel (+7 cents). Also increased the price of ‘ Gold : The metal for immediate delivery rooms by 0.4% to $ 1,248 an ounce driven by prudent policy of the Federal Reserve.
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