The manna from heaven comes to a few. For big. With the hope, though, that it indirectly extends also to small and medium-sized enterprises. In fact only 26 Italian companies in the market have already bond with the characteristics required to be purchased by the ECB. This is some great groups of the Peninsula (from Terna, Enel, Telecom Italy to Hera, Acea Luxottica as seen in the chart) that currently have dall’Eurotower bonds purchased for an amount of around 87 billion euro. Obvious that the ECB did not buy any. But, theoretically according to calculations made by the Sole 24 Ore by some leading Italian and international banks, this is the current pool of corporate bonds on which Italian Mario Draghi will potentially operate in Italy.
Now that the European central Bank began to buy bonds issued by companies, in addition to government bonds, it just has to ask yourself some questions: what impact will this novelty of Italian monetary policy on the real economy? Will benefit only large groups, or the benefits, at least indirectly, they will arrive at all? What will change in the financial management of companies? And the attitude of investors? In short, this time the benefits will come to the real economy or remain in the financial markets? These are the questions that (still keeping in mind that the goal of the ECB is to print money and increase liquidity to fight deflation) is right to ask. We try to answer.
effects on large companies
For the big Italian the impact of this new maneuver of the ECB is undoubtedly positive. Since Draghi announced plans to buy corporate bonds, on 10 March, the average yield of corporate bonds with higher rating to “BBB-” fell sharply in all of Europe: March 9 these titles were on average forced to offer returns of 1.69 percentage points above the swap rate, now you can pay 1.33 percentage point spread. This means that large companies, those who have access can now borrow at interest saving bond market. And the forecast – for example those of Marco Valli, economist at UniCredit – are for further reduction.
This is helping big companies manage their debt in an ever more efficient. More and more big European, exploiting their window of opportunity opened by the ECB with this, are, for example, issuing new bonds (with lower rates and longer life spans) to buy back old bonds (at high rates and shorter): to date – according to data Societe Generale – they have made 11 European groups, which include the Italian Enel. “These operations allow companies to take advantage of the current low level of interest rates to reduce the cost and lengthen the life of the debt – notes Antonio Guadagnino of Societe Generale -. It also allows them to better manage the current liquidity. ” All this is positive. But since this increased availability of cheap loans will not result in real investments by large enterprises, it is obvious that the exercise – though otherwise beneficial – is likely to produce only half effect. And do not bring true development for all.
effects on SMEs
If the big impact of the operation of the ECB is obvious, less obvious is the ‘effect on small, small and medium enterprises. Those on the bond market they can not go. Those that still see it with binoculars bank credit: estimating a recent survey by CNA and KPMG, that banks should not grant loans for an amount less than 30 thousand euro, because the costs exceed revenues in the era of zero rates. Well, maneuvering the ECB will, at least indirectly to them?
The premises to be confident, according to some, there might be. “The program of the ECB on corporate bonds could bring strong benefits to smaller companies – look at the eurozone chief economists of UniCredit Marco Valli -. Not only for the general effect of rate lowering, but also for indirect reasons. If large companies will find it more convenient to finance itself on the bond market, banks will have more resources for SMEs. ” Resources, continues Valleys, which potentially also increase because of the ultra-interest loans (called Tltro) that the ECB will start soon in favor of banks.
This is the hope. But nothing more than a hope. First, because the banks have more and more constraints (imposed largely by the ECB), which makes the granting of credit especially to small businesses very expensive in terms of capital. Also because the mountain of non-performing loans (gross 360 billion in Italian) ties the hands of the lenders. Finally, because the banking system are not enough resources (which already abound): serves the capital and cost effectiveness to deliver even more credit to small entrepreneurs. Moral: since the Italian economic system remains so bancocentrico and as long as the banks do not return fully to extend credit, the risk is that for SMEs arrive again only crumbs.
m.longo@ilsole24ore .com
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