Confindustria on Brexit and on the constitutional referendum: “If this fails will the recession” – Il Tirreno

ROME. The Brexit scares Italians entrepreneurs. According to estimates of the Centre of Confindustria studies “the cost for Italy exit from the UK translates, in the 2016-2017 biennium, a loss of 0.6 points of GDP, 81,000 unemployed more units, 154 € per capita income and 113 thousand poor “compared to forecasts that, for employment, however, expect growth. And just on employment and the effects of Brexit rejects the pessimistic estimates Matteo Renzi who yesterday favorite tweet: “With #Istat data today we are 497mila jobs more from February 2014. The #jobsact is creating stable job # avantitutta. “

of course Confindustria stressed that it is” conservative estimates that do not incorporate some qualitative variables, and the final budget could be worse. ” In fact according to the Center entrepreneurial association studies growth could drop from 1.4 to 0.8% while the employment front, despite the blow of Brexit, should still “register an increase of 250 thousand units that lead to + 650 thousand total since I started again to increase; They still miss 1.37 million to bridge the chasm of the crisis. ” Immediately throws cold water on the welfare minister, “I – said Giuliano Poletti – I think you have to be cautious. Because the timing of Brexit, processes, negotiation … There is a whole dynamic that will go forward in time, it is important to have managed and overcome the shock of the first day because it was the most delicate phase that is discharged as always it happens on finance, stock exchange, banks and public debt. ”

According to the minister, “this time I think has given a sign that he had changed his direction. Then there was the estate. I think that Europe has taken a significantly different behavior from the past. Do not take for granted that it will be. ”

At the local level some impact, however, are obvious and immediate. The fall of the pound can not but have an impact on the Italian exports. Until vote the trade balance was clearly positive: 11 billion Euros for Italian companies that are already doing to deal with a fall so sudden the British currency. “The effects – explains Confindustria – will emerge more clearly in 2017, being the balance of 2016 already heavily influenced by already acquired.” But if Britain’s exit from Europe worries Confindustria, the risk does not pass the constitutional referendum of October, worries even more. “It would cause political chaos and disrupt the recovery undertaken and by fall the Italian economy into recession.”

What you can not Brexit could therefore determine the stop to the constitutional reform. Compared with current trends, “the Italian economy would lose over three years (2017-2019)

4 percentage points of GDP, investment 17 points and almost 600 thousand units of work.” Still, the estimate is that “in 2019 the national debt sfonderebbe share 144% of GDP, per capita income would decrease by EUR 590 430 thousand poor and there would be more.

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