ROME
The Mayor expects a slowdown in the pace of growth in the short term: the composite leading indicator for the Italian economy “showed further deceleration ‘( and that in the absence of a quantification of the possible effects of the outcome of the referendum united Kingdom); thus confirming a trend “in place” that continues “year to date”.
A first weigh toward a downside risk estimates is the evolution of household confidence, which “has deteriorated in the second quarter of the year “(and in April retail sales, measured by volume, posted a quarterly change anything). But less good signs also arrive by consumption: here the expectations of market participants ‘inflation’ does not show very different guidelines from the recent past – says the Mayor -. More than half of consumers continues to expect stable consumer prices over the next twelve months, while the producers of consumer goods indications of possible increases in the short term remain very limited. ” And “a soft patch” is affecting also the service sector: in June, “the climate of business confidence in market services and trade showed a further decline.”
The monthly note on ‘widespread Italian economy yesterday by statistics confirms a phase of moderate growth in Italy, with some signals in chiaroscuro. On the work front, in May, for the third consecutive month, it continued, in a positive, an improvement in employment (+ 0.1% APR, or + 21 thousand employees), although at a slower pace (you are serving the “settling” effect after the boom of fixed contracts signed in December because of decontribution full, reduced from January to 40%).
the new jobs are essentially dependent relationships (permanent and term ), while for the self-employed continued contraction, due to the operation of the cleaning collaborations and false VAT numbers inaugurated with the Jobs act. The climate is mild, however, and above all varied among the productive sectors: in June the expectations of entrepreneurs on trends in recruitment for the next three months’ worsening in the services and construction, stable in manufacturing, an increase in trade. ” And always in June worsened the household expectations on unemployment. fluctuating data even on the front companies: in April the production activity in industry excluding construction has recorded an economic growth (+ 0.5%), driven by the positive performance of intermediate goods and consumer goods (+2.2 respectively + 1.1% compared to March); By contrast, however, there has been some mildly negative for capital goods (-0.1%) and a more marked decline for energy (-1.5%).
At the international level was confirmed as a US economic slowdown (in part linked to the decline in non-residential fixed capital formation); and the slowdown in emerging economies continues to affect the flow of world trade. For its part, the euro area ended the first quarter with an economic growth of 0.6%, with stable outlook (but investigations have been carried out before the British referendum).
The Mayor will release the true esteem and own, for Italy, for the second quarter close of August; for now it is emphasized “caution”, but year to date the composite leading indicator for the Italian economy is pointing downwards, although still above the zero threshold. Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, he still says “very optimistic” on the fundamentals of our economy: “We must exploit them by moving the resources and investment in the long term.” More concerned about the union, that “the slowdown in consumption and cooling of the climate of confidence among households and businesses sound like alarm bells,” it is the reply Guglielmo Loy (UIL). The point is that you are faced with “a moderate growth and tending to contract – sums Maurizio Sacconi (AP) -. And then we need a lot more deregulation push to rid the propensity to invest and hire. “
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