Italian growth at risk because of Brexit. Supports the International Monetary Fund, for which the increase in GDP will remain below 1% in 2016 and will move around 1% in 2017. The figure, if confirmed in the updating of the World Economic Outlook expected the next week, it represents a cut of about 0.2-0.3% on the assessments contained in the documents distributed at the end of the annual survey on the Italian economy consultation under Article 4 and who continue to fix the increase in GDP Italian 1.1% this year and 1.3% next year.
“the staff” warns the Fund in an appendix of the report on Italy containing “additional information” than at the close of the trial, “is reviewing the growth outlook slightly procedure so as to take account of the increased uncertainty. as the recovery is expected to continue,” notes the institute of Washington, “the increased volatility the financial market and the overall greater uncertainty could weigh on investment and growth from now on. While trade and direct exposure of the financial sector with Britain are relatively limited, the preliminary assessment of the staff is that the downside risks to growth have increased in some way. “
The IMF Report records that the Italian economy “is recovering gradually highlights, the recovery” as deep and long recession. “However, it is modest and fragile.” For the Fund, Italy will never see the peaks of 2007 until the middle of the next decade , a long period during which will widen the gap of the country than the average of the euro area, which is growing faster.
in front of the government, says the IMF, there are monumental challenges. the ‘Washington institute promotes the reforms undertaken, starting with those of the labor market, public administration and the banking sector.
the agenda of the government Renzi is worth about 0.3% of GDP in most . But as long as efforts are fully completed and intensified, which includes, among other things, a new structure of bargaining to align wages with productivity, address the problem of non-performing loans and a reduction of the tax burden without putting at risk the medium-term fiscal targets. There is even a stronger exhortation to further open markets for goods and services and reduce inefficiencies in public administration.
Among the major risks on the horizon, the Fund cites any delay in addressing the issue of quality of bank assets; the increased volatility of the global financial market, partly because of Brexit; the slowdown in world trade that weighs on exports: the threats alal asicurezza and the flow of migrants that could complicate the political situation. “A call finally even for the debt, which remains” a source of vulnerability. “
the IMF notes that the debt increased to 132.7% in 2015, a far cry from the target of 60% set by the European stability Pact. it still has to touch the peak. in nominal terms is the highest of the area ‘euro, while in relation to GDP is the second after Greece.
its structure, however, admits the Fund, “partially mitigates refinancing risk.” the average maturity is 6 years and a half approximately 70% is fixed rate. in addition, about two-thirds are held by domestic investors. in the baseline scenario of the Italian Government, which provides the structural balance from 2019 and a nominal growth of 2% per year, the debt is expected to decline .
However, says the Fund, the moderate shocks materialize on growth and on interest rates could jeopardize the stabilization objectives or reduction. Hence the invitation to obtain and maintain for several years a structural surplus of about 0.5% of GDP to “ensure that the debt steadily declines.
Ready the response of Prime Minister Matteo renzi the harsh analysis IMF. “All have reduced estimates after Brexit. Damage alas hear them, but in the medium term will do more harm to the British than to us Italians, French and Germans, we can have a small downturn in the economy, some zero point. The British however are very concerned, “said Renzi in an interview with RTL radio.” We try to attract talent and brains, we try to bring to Italy a bit ‘of financial and health institutions that are in London. “
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