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On the new estimates, which will be finalized on July 19, weighs the effect of Brexit. The Italian exposure to the British economy in fact, Goyal says, is “relatively modest”, but the slowdown is linked to the effect that the rising market volatility due to the exclusion of the United Kingdom by the EU will have on investment. A little reassuring scenario for Italy, not only in the short term. Even Istat, in fact, see an increase in perspective, “uncertainty about eurozone economic outlook,” and warns: “The medium-term effects will be conditioned by the nature of future agreements between the UK and the EU.” In short, for Italy, the Brexit lot is still to be played, despite the Prime Minister continues to minimize. And to frame the Brexit more as an opportunity than as a problem. “They reduced all growth estimates after Brexit – said the prime minister to RTL microphones – there will soon be a slowdown in the economy for Europe in the medium term but damage them feel more British. For example we are trying with Beppe room to bring to Milan a bit ‘of financial institutions that are in London and we are thinking on the assumption of a European passport who studied at the Bocconi “. But there is not only the new Brexit to thicken the horizon. The report on Italy of the International Monetary Fund, in fact, portrays one not exactly rosy scenario for our economy. Which was affected by not one, but several problems: “The structural challenge remains significant – explain from Washington – productivity growth and investment is low; unemployment remains above 11%, with significantly higher levels in some regions and among young people. ” The debt is expected to decline “only gradually in the coming years and remain vulnerable to shocks,” says the Fund. Hence “the pro growth reforms urgently” to boost a recovery that is hard to take off, and that the IMF calls “modest”. So much so that, to the rhythms of time, “the production back to pre-crisis levels in 2007 will only happen by 2025″.
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