A freeze the summer of Renzi premier, on the eve of August, came the preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter of the year: the Italian growth in the months from April to June was zero to zero . After + 0.3% in the first quarter, and given the global and European economy no one expected sparks from the second quarter GDP, but even a slashed zero. And the rest of Europe? Frozen as we only France (which, however, has some justification in more for such a disappointing result), very well in Germany. So, once again, we are among the last of the class and guilt, wanting to be philosophical, is not outside, but inside of us.
ISTAT: GDP 0 , 0% in the second quarter
in a statement ISTAT informs us that in the period April-June GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, remained unchanged on the previous quarter (which it was increased by 0.3% on a cyclical basis) and increased by 0.7% on an annual basis. The second quarter of 2016 – says the Mayor – has had one working day more than the previous quarter and more than in the second quarter of 2015. The change gained for 2016 of the Italian GDP, that is, if the annual growth GDP proves to zero in the coming quarters, it amounted to + 0.6%. The result of the second quarter GDP was worse than expected: in late May ISTAT included a change in GDP in the fork 0% / 0.4%, but the result has stopped on zero.
GDP: the European framework
“shared is a trouble halved” the ancients said, but the Italian economy has not even this little satisfaction. In the second quarter of 2016, in fact, while Italy remained firm to the pole without lifting a finger, GDP grew in quarterly terms by 0.6% in the UK and 0.3% in the US, while in trend terms, it grew by 2.2% in the UK, 1.4% in France and 1.2% in the US. According to widespread estimates on 29 July, the GDP of Eurozone countries increased by 0.3% from the previous quarter and by 1.6% in comparison with the same quarter of 2015. in addition, data released today indicate that GDP in Germany grew by 0.4 % compared to the previous quarter, after 0.7% growth in the first quarter.
the only small consolation for Italy is that with us with a firm GDP over the previous quarter c ‘ is France. in his defense, though, there are two elements to consider: the first are the strong strikes in recent months have stopped the country for the opposition to labor reform and the second are the tensions related to terrorism.
Italy: the situation is complicated
As mentioned earlier, in September will be a busy month for the government Renzi, the time when I will have to revisit GDP estimates with the update note to the DEF. Assuming that to date the change acquired for 2016 is 0.6%, to achieve the objective set by the Government in the DEF in the second half of the year GDP is expected to double. Utopia . Italy, after a first quarter in which she went to push, now is firm, unmoving. It is not easy to look at the second half of the year with optimism. Geopolitical tensions and terrorism-related are not meant to diminish so quickly, the effects of Brexit have yet to be felt (the Brits have voted in the last week of June), the problems of banks and the operation (at risk) expectations in the coming months, one of MPS in the first place, they’ll pick up the temperature on the markets and, finally, the appointment with the constitutional referendum which increases uncertainty in the country and politics distracts from the real priority.
no one can be said to have pocketed the winning recipe, but what we can say with certainty is that the road taken by the Government last year has not led Italy to anywhere except to the starting point. The spots interventions, which reek of electoral tips, do not work. And ‘necessary in a structural way to cut the cost of labor, lower taxes and make sure that everyone pay, make a serious spending review and recover money to make investments that do down the occupation, the country. The rest is chatter and the chatter are zero, as our GDP.
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