a cold shower on the timid economic recovery hopes. Zero growth in gross domestic product in the second quarter stops progression. A progression that began in 2015 after three years of recession, which gradually lost thrust to a stop. A worse than expected. At this point, not only the target of an increase of a 1.2% GDP Government this year becomes a mirage, but there is the risk that even jogging modest growth last year (+ 0.8% ) is an ambitious goal.
the Confindustria had been criticized for excessive pessimism when corrected downwards its estimates bringing them precisely to 0.8% for 2016. But so did Morgan Stanley and c ‘ also those who expect less like Ref and IHS Markit (0.6%). The fact is that after yesterday’s result, you can not even rule out a return to negative growth in the second half of the year. It was the same at Confindustria prefigurarla in reference to the possible consequences of Brexit, the eventual victory of Trump in the US and especially in case of no success in the constitutional referendum. Actually there are also other elements that could favor instead a new ripresina in the coming quarters, in particular the good performance of the tourist season and the fact that employment, albeit less than in 2015, continues to increase, says the Ministry of Economy .
But let’s stay with the facts . For now, says Istat, the “acquired growth” for 2016 is 0.6%, this will be that the increase in GDP in the next two quarters if the change will still be zero. To do better we must return to the plus sign. According to Paolo Mameli, office economist at Intesa Sanpaolo studies, to center a growth of 0.8%, the GDP in the next two quarters is expected to grow by 0.3%. The Friday zero, then chilled the government Renzi, who had already reckoned to have to correct the estimates of Def April. Moreover, the negative results of June on production (- 1% from a year earlier), exports (-0.4%) and consumption (-1.3% in May) announcing the worst, even a possible sign unless at least in the preliminary estimates yesterday did not happen.
The Treasury invites to look at the lights next to the shadows : c ‘it is a worsening of the global economy that curbs exports, but a boost to GDP will be from public investments this year will rise. The countries of the euro zone, meanwhile, grew on average by 0.3% in the second quarter and Germany 0.4%, more than expected. They will also change the two reports are decisive for the feedback from the European Commission: the deficit / GDP and debt / GDP. On both there is the risk of a bitter confrontation with Brussels. It is clear that the target of a deficit of 1.8% of GDP may not be observed. Experts had estimated that an increase of about 1% (instead of 1.2% of Def) would serve about 5 billion more (spending cuts and / or increased revenues) to center 1.8%.
Now things seem worse . To center the deficit to 1.8% and defuse the safeguard clauses (otherwise it would increase VAT) could serve 20 billion. To find before beginning the expansive maneuver which Renzi would not want to give up. He promised more money for the renewal of the 3 million public employees contracts and more resources to raise minimum pensions. How to find billions, not a few, they would take? Largely by borrowing. The Prime Minister believes that, to support policies for growth, the deficit will be increased (some say up to 2.3% and more), given that Italy would remain well below the 3% benchmark. Only that this speech is not accepted by the EU because Italy has a completely offline public debt, nearly 133% of GDP (the highest after Greece).
Padoan this year was sure to turn the tide , the he had set for 2016 the target of 132.4%. Compared to 132.7% of 2015 a symbolic drop, but even now this is likely to jump. Just yesterday, the Bank of Italy has certified the new record achieved by debt: 2248800000000 euro, an increase of 77.2 billion over the past six months. But on this Brussels does not seem more willing to turn a blind eye. It risks the infringement procedure for excessive debt. Padoan is confident that the turnaround will be, thanks to the good performance of the ENAV privatization to be followed by a new tranche of Poste. Eventually, with Brussels, a lot or everything will depend on the political balance of power and the succession of events.
The government will present the Budget Law of 2017 by October 20 . In November there will be a referendum on constitutional reform. An open game. But if Renzi were to lose it would be even more difficult for him to defend his maneuver in Europe. Before all this, however, the prime minister and his finance minister will have to converge on a common line. Padoan does not tire of repeating that the next maneuver ‘focus available resources, limited by the weight of public debt on a few growth-enhancing measures. ” A way of saying that priority will be given to public investment and to facilitate relief for those of private enterprises, particularly innovation, while there is no room for the possibility of anticipating the 2017 IRPEF cut expected in 2018 and there are few funds available for pensions and public contracts. Considerations that sound like a stop to the plans of Renzi and his undersecretary Nannicini.
August 13, 2016 (modified August 13, 2016 | 00 : 51)
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