The emergencies in recent months, from the terrorism to Brexit through turbulence on banking system , have It did overshadow concerns about the performance of the pil . The premier Matteo Renzi has stopped talking about it, preferring to focus on the referendum , the need for a strengthening of the EU , the situation of the banks and the bail in . Yet, as pointed out Wednesday by an editorial in the Financial Times , the real problem is “the persistent lack of economic growth “. But now, a few days from August, to ignore the elephant in the room becomes impossible. Because the preliminary estimate Istat , that in the second quarter gross domestic product remained to the post , it makes the unattainable goal of a + 1.2% for the ‘entire 2016 put on paper by the government in the Document of economics and finance in April. Not to mention that 1.6% that Renzi, speaking on Door to Door January 21, had called an “absolutely within our reach” goal, after + 0.6% (+0 , 7% of raw data) of 2015.
In eight months, thanks to a international context more and more weak and the ‘ inflation to a minimum in ‘Eurozone, the forecasts for the GDP in 2016 coming from the Italian research centers and international bodies have followed a downward without brakes. Now, according to leading think tank on credit rating agencies, the bar is between +0.8 and +0.9 per cent, about half of what Palazzo Chigi hoped earlier this year. In early February, the prospects were still rosy: the European Commission , while revising estimates downward, gave credit to a + 1.4%, writing that the Italian economy would “gained momentum with the strengthening of domestic demand “and the fall of oil prices, which would offset on exports” slowdown. Time fifteen days, on February 18, the ‘ OECD restrained, by filing the forecasts to a + 1%, 0.4 points lower than the Outlook of November.
On April 8, the government took note only part of the braking, entering in Def – the document on which hinges the economic policy – a target of 1.2 % against the to the previous 1.6% estimate. Too bad that four days after the International Monetary Fund , aligning the OECD, has ruled that the peninsula could count over a maximum of + 1%. A month later, on May 3, the coming of the downward revision in Brussels: from +1.4 to +1.1 percent. Forecast confirmed May 17 by Istat in report on the prospects for the Italian economy in 2016.
Jump forward to June 7: The Institute of Statistical analysts, in their monthly note, noted that “the composite leading indicator of the economy recorded a further decline, suggesting the slowdown in the pace of growth in economic activity in the short term” because “the positive results registered in the first quarter were joined by some signs of weakness in the expectations of companies and orders in the manufacturing sector. “
on June 23, the UK’s electorate voted overwhelmingly in favor of the Brexit . The day after European shares plummeted (Milan has steamed the worst crash in history) and became increasingly concrete fears about London can output impact on other EU economies. A week after the Centre of Confindustria studios put black and white that the consequences for Italy will be heavy: the growth forecast for 2016 was revised from +1.4 to 0.8% , while that for 2017 has been brought even to + 0.6%, less than half the previous 1.3%. On July 6, the research center Prometeia confirmed: by 2016 we will have to settle for a 0.8 percent. Also on July 12, the IMF cut its estimates, so giving Roma hope for a +0.9 percent.
July 15 Bank of Italy could not but take note that you will not go more than 1%. 26 from ‘ Parliamentary Budget Office came the tombstone: “A growth in 2016 of 1.2%, as projected in Def , the growth rate 2016 would stand “appears not reached”, and serving a growing last quarter included, just under 1% “. On July 27, while also Fitch cut the estimate for 2016 by reducing it to 0.8%, Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan he has admitted that the second quarter closed with a economic growth “0.1 / 0.2%”, with a slowdown because of the “weakness of the emerging economies and the uncertainty for the outcome of the referendum on the Brexit “. The data disseminated by Istat Friday, as we have seen, is far worse.
The effects on the entire year will be discussed “in detail in the Update Note def “waiting for September, said Padoan. And the forecast will be clear cut. Paolo Mameli , senior economist of the central studies and research direction of Intesa Sanpaolo , has already indicated that in the light of the setback although the GDP in the second part of ‘ year return to grow “by 0.1-0.2%”, the average growth of 2016 would stop “below 1%, to 0.8%, still an improvement compared to 0.6% last year.” An improvement may beckon in 2017, “but hardly even next year growth will be placed above the 1%.”
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