setback for the Italian economy in the second quarter GDP unchanged – The Republic

MILAN – Setback for the Italian economy in the second quarter remained nailed to the pole. How it not happened since the end of 2014, when Italy was trying to get out of recession. The zero growth in GDP between April and June came as a cold shower on the Renzi government that a trusted side to find in the economic recovery fresh resources to be allocated to pensions and investments and other envisioned using it as a crowbar to get more flexibility on public accounts in the European Union. In fact, if the economy does not grow the deficit and public debt – which are calculated in relation to GDP – is bound to increase. But if even Palazzo Chigi could check off the coveted flexibility in terms of percentages tenths, might be in hand less resources than you imagine.

The Italian economy is “more fragile” but the public accounts are “under control “assures the Ministry of Economy after the ISTAT figures on GDP in the second quarter. “Despite the growth is more fragile than expected – says the Treasury – the public accounts are under control, as evidenced by the performance requirements of the state sector.

The first warning about the health Italian was arriving a few days ago with the collapse of industrial production in June, followed by exports braking and by the continuing deflation. Proving that domestic demand – despite the interventions of the ECB and government stimuli – is not yet solid. The experts, however, expect a growth of the economy over the quarter of 0.3%, just like that of the first three months of the year. Instead came a zero growth. The progression on the same period last year, also, is only a small consolation: the change is positive for 0.7%, but at the end of March was 1%. A fact that probably will force the government to revise downwards its growth forecast for the whole 2016.

The revision also reflected in the words of the Deputy Minister of Economy Enrico Morando: “We will present the note for September 27 update of Def, at that point we will see the situation we find ourselves. there is no doubt that on the basis of these data it is difficult to achieve the growth target that was set for 2016, ie 1.2%. ” “Inevitably, you will be able to determine more difficulties in defining choices. Or rather, we must take account of this trend in defining choices regarding 2017 and beyond,” he added reiterating that the Italian economy is affected the “international context, become more uncertain.” international context also mentioned in the official statement of the Treasury.

Weather forecast for Italy to face: EU Commission winter, spring (the past) and Def 2016

	2015			2016	2017
	EU prim.	EU winter	Def 2016 (cons)	prim EU.	EU winter	final 2016	prim EU.	EU winter	Def 2016
GDP % annual growth	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.1	1.4	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.4
annual inflation	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.4	1.8	1.5
unempl rate.	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.2	11.3	10.9
Deficit / GDP (%)	-2 , 6	2.6	2.6	2.4	-2.5	2.3	1.9	1.5	1.8
Debt / GDP (%)	132.7	132.8	132.7	132.7	132.4	132.4	131.8	130.6	130.9

in addition, the second quarter of 2016 – says the Mayor – has had one working day more than the previous quarter and a more than in the second quarter of 2015. During the same period, said the Institute of statistics, GDP increased by 0.6% in quarterly terms in the United Kingdom and 0.3% in the US, whereas there was no change in France. In trend terms, there was an increase of 2.2% in the UK, 1.4% in France and 1.2% in the US. Overall, according to widespread estimates on July 29 last year, the GDP of the euro area countries increased by 0.3% from the previous quarter and by 1.6% in comparison with the same quarter of 2015. The acquired variation for 2016 of the Italian GDP, which is the annual growth would be achieved in the presence of a short-term change anything in the remaining quarters of the year, amounted to 0.6%.

“in an international economic landscape that has been done more complicated, Italy confirms its difficulties long-term “says Andrea Goldstein, managing director of Nomisma, which then adds:” there is no alternative to an economic policy in the sign of the structural measures and recovery of competitiveness eroded by too many years of timidity. “

Eurozone. are slowing economic growth in the Eurozone, as a result of concerns over the Brexit and weak performance in France and Italy. As reported by Eurostat, the GDP was in the second quarter of 0.3%, down from + 0.6% in the first quarter; the figure is unchanged from last month’s estimates and in line with analysts’ forecasts. On an annual basis, the eurozone economy grew in the second quarter by 1.6%, unchanged from the estimates. The German economy was better than expected, growing by 0.4%, after + 0.7% in the previous quarter; GDP of France fell to zero from + 0.7% like the Italian, was unchanged after rising 0.3% in the first three months of the year. The economy of Spain has advanced by 0.7%, against 0.8% the previous quarter.