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The growth is ramping down. Istat yesterday admitted that in 2015 the GDP corrected for calendar effects (ie taking into account that the working days have been three more than in 2014) increased by 0.6%. The figure therefore differs from that prevalent Istat Tuesday, March 1, when the Institute of Statistics showed the increase in GDP not adjusted for days worked (+ 0.8%). And just that 0.8% is the number claimed by Renzi from last December while the government in updating the Def (the document economy and finance) has put up 0.9%. In addition the data confirmed today, that is, the + 0.6%, is not valid for the purpose of the Maastricht criteria that considers the first one released last March that accredits a 0.8% growth last year.
Apart from this war of the decimal real fact is that the lagging economy as demonstrated by other data. In the fourth quarter of 2015 the GDP rose 0.1% on quarter and by 1% on 2014. And it is the Mayor to say that “during the year there was a gradual weakening.” In fact, after an increase of 0.4% in the first three months of the year, by 0.3% and 0.2% in the second and third quarter, the GDP in the last quarter rose to a shaky 0.1%.
the optimism of the Treasury, despite these numbers, it is steel. By the Ministry of Economy suggest that a 1.6% growth in 2016, “is not unrealistic as many argued, it is already in the facts as regards domestic demand and would be reached in an international framework even moderately favorable.”
The fourth quarter GDP data, according to the Treasury “are not at all disappointing as it might seem at first sight, indeed contain several positive elements. In fact, according to the new quarterly data, the final demand (aggregate that excludes stocks) made a net contribution to the economic growth of 0.4 points and foreign trade has given an additional 0.1 “.
The government hopes essentially in a tail blow in the coming months, perhaps helped by the international situation favorable pià. There is a risk, however, that in the months to proceed to the rhythm of “decimal”, limiting the room for maneuver of the government that can not always appeal to the European flexibility. Also on the front of the euro area the firepower of Quantitative easing from the ECB is running out. According to Nomisma the GDP is far from the levels needed to quickly bring the country on production levels, wealth and well-being before the Great Recession.
Consumption also suffered a joke d ‘arrest. Confcommercio records, in January 2016, an invariance compared with the previous month and a 1.4% trend growth. “There is a recovery but without momentum,” warns the association that emphasizes “the continuing uncertainty about the short-term outlook.”
Worried unions. Loy UIL emphasizes that “the data, several times revised, on the growth of our GDP indicate that the way to bridge the gap accumulated over the long period of crisis is still very long.”
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