Ok GDP is fair, entrepreneurs reviewing a light – AGI – Agenzia Journalistic Italy

 11:06 02/18/2016

Rome – Tidal wave of downward revisions to the OECD. In its Interim Economic Outlook, the Paris organization cut its growth forecast by almost all major economies, with significant except India , whose GDP is estimated to grow by 7.4% both in 2015 and in 2016 (+ 0.1% compared to the estimate of November) and 7.3% in 2017. Forecasts unchanged for China, which continues to appear geared to a slowdown (+6.9 % in 2015, + 6.5% this year and 6.2% next year).

For the euro zone is estimated to expand by 1 , 4% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017 (+ 1.8% and + 1.9% estimated in November after a 1.5% in 2015), while Set confirmed in more ‘robust form, albeit in retreat: + 2% in 2016 and + 2.2% in 2017 (+ 2.5% and + 2.4% in November) after a + 2.4% in 2015. also he does the United Kingdom : + 2.1% in 2016 and + 2% in 2017 (+ 2.4% and + 2.3% in November according to the estimates) after a + 2.2% in 2015.

Japan , however, remains a bit ‘in trouble: + 0.8% this year and + 0.6% per year next (+ 1% and + 0.5% estimated in November) after a + 0.4% in 2015.

Europe – as for the major economies of ‘Eurozone, the downward revision more’ hard it is for the Germany : + 1.3% in 2016 and + 1.7% in 2017 (November figures predicted a 1.8% in 2016 and + 2% in 2017) after a 1.4% increase in 2015. Regge well, however, France that, after expanding by 1.1% last year, and ‘ seen up 1.2% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017, in both cases a cut estimates of just 0.1%.

Italy – the OECD has revised downwards its forecast on the growth of the Italian GDP, estimated at 0.6% expansion in 2015 and 1% in 2016. They are the contenunti data in Interim Economic Outlook Paris organization . In the Economic Outlook of last November, the Italian GDP was estimated at 0.8% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016. Unchanged forecasting growth of 1.4% in 2017.

the “wooden spoon” then remains firmly in the hands of the Brazil that, after burning a 3.8% last year, and ‘saw a decrease of 4% in 2016 and GDP unchanged in 2017, when the Economic Outlook of November, an estimated 1.2% in 2016 and an expansion of 1.8% in 2017. the estimated growth in world GDP (+ 3% in 2015) have been instead reduced by 0.3% for both 2016 (+ 3%) for 2017.

A recovery of the global recovery “remains elusive”. “In 2016 the expansion of the GDP global and ‘expected to be no more’ high in 2015, which in itself ‘had marked the pace of growth more’ slow the last five years,” he said in the document, “growth is slowing in many emerging economies with a very modest recovery in advanced economies and low prices that depress exporters of raw materials, trade and investment remain weak; weak demand is leading to low inflation and a inadequate growth of wages and employment “. Although the potential benefits of the collapse in the oil price, underlines the ‘ OECD about the eurozone, “were lower than expected”, so’ as the very low interest rates and the weak euro ” They have yet to lead to a solid strengthening of investment. ” In many eurozone countries, also, “the high indebtedness of the private sector and high levels of bad loans shrink the credit channel of monetary policy transmission.

<'p> It will also be” difficult “the process of rebalancing of the Chinese economy, which is facing the volatility ‘of exchange rates and bags and “uncertainty about the reaction of the authorities’ future developments’. The United States, for their part, are likely braking upon reaching full employment, unless a sustained wage growth not inflation uplifts. “A collective response policy more ‘strong’ necessary to strengthen demand,” warns the ‘ OECD , “fiscal policy and’ recessive now in many major economies, the pace of structural reforms has slowed” . In this context, concludes the organization of Paris , the monetary policy of central banks must remain “very accommodating” and must be “a commitment to collectively increase public investment” which “would stimulate demand remaining at a path of sustainability ‘tax “. (AGI)

The first six weeks of 2016 were “an exceptionally negative period” for the financial markets and there are “real risks of instability ‘financial, especially for emerging markets.” And ‘what the OECD warns in its Interim Economic Outlook. “Globally the uncertainty and volatility ‘of the financial markets have increased,” for reasons that include “the concern about global growth prospects and uncertainty about the yuan exchange rate,” says the OECD points out that the shots more ‘hard they have been collected from European banks, which from the beginning of the year have seen their market capitalization fall by more than 20%. In emerging markets, however, “capital flows have been weakened or reversed” with some countries that experienced “sharp currency depreciations.” Worries also “the rapid growth of indebtedness of the private sector”, especially in China.

In the face of an economic recovery that remains “weak”, the European project is struggling to maintain political support of citizens for a number of factors including “the increase of refugees, external security threats, the unpopularity ‘of austerity measures’ and centrifugal forces in some countries.” And ‘the diagnosis contained in Interim Economic Outlook OECD. “Europe needs to rediscover itself and speak with one voice to promote united ‘and growth,” warns the Paris organization, “this political uncertainty is likely to further weigh on investment and could lead to financial conditions more’ difficult that deprimebbero already a ‘weak growth in Europe and elsewhere. “

The” slow recovery “Eurozone ” and’ an important factor weighing on the global recovery and the leaves’ Europe vulnerable to global shocks “. You read it in Interim Economic Outlook OECD. “A central concern and ‘the risk that the euro area remains mired in a low-growth, low inflation and confidence in the medium-term outlook too weak to generate more’ high investment and innovation and shifts that would strengthen productivity ‘and employment growth “, adds the OECD, stressing that such situation will create” negative interactions with the banking sector, as highlighted by the recent sharp fall in share prices of European banks “whose shares, in recent weeks, they have touched low prices “almost like those seen during the financial crisis in 2009″. The Paris organization recognizes the “major structural reforms” adopted by some countries but considers overall the reform path “too slow”, in particular the so-called ‘Juncker agenda’ on investment that “has yet to give the desired results.” “We need more ‘ambition to make the EU institutions more’ favorable to growth and productivity ‘,” says the OECD. (AGI)