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This article was published on March 5, 2016 at 17:31.
the last change is the March 6, 2016 at 10:41.
BRUSSELS – Like it or not, Italy will return next week to the European spotlight because of its public accounts, always controversial. Between Monday and Tuesday is the finance ministers of the euro area that the European Commission will give its assessment, in particular as regards the debt. The EU executive will likely consider the increasingly excessive macroeconomic imbalances Italian, but without open a formal procedure.
The finance ministers of the euro area will gather here in Brussels on Monday. Among other things, they will discuss the latest economic forecasts from the European Commission (see Il Sole / 24 Ore on February 5).
The discussion will be ‘routine’, explained an official. The look will race in those countries in November, at the time of the presentation of their financial, they were judged at risk of violation of the Stability Pact rules. Among them: Austria, Lithuania, Spain, and Italy.
So, the ministers noted regarding Italy that “further measures may be needed to improve the structural effort.” Rome has presented a Financial 2016 which provides for the use of budgetary flexibility by way of new investments and new reforms, as well as for the expense due to the emergency refugees. The government’s objective is to support the fragile recovery. To avoid excessive debt procedures must, however, limit the deviation from the path towards a balanced budget.
The Commission has already said that he will wait in May before giving his opinion on the budget of 2016. At that point there will be certainty on ‘ development of public finances in 2015. it is likely that on Monday, the Eurogroup will notice that the Brussels forecasts show an increase in the structural deficit between 2015 and 2016 from 1.0 to 1.7% of GDP (1.5% in autumn). Inevitably, to influence the debate will also be a Community January report that the ministers will discuss Tuesday.
The Commission published two months ago a three-year progress report on the debt in all EU countries. The report could not help but point out the risks Italian (and 15 other countries), at least in the medium term. In both the short term and the long term, the EU executive had expressed some confidence (see Il Sole 24 Ore of 26 January). The Italian public debt, expected to fall this year, should have been of 132.8% of GDP last year.
Finally, the Commission itself should be published on Tuesday in Strasbourg on political judgment on the analysis of macroeconomic imbalances supported by them 18 EU countries. Italy is closely guarded because of high debt and low competitiveness. Already the Brussels last year was considered the country struggling with excessive imbalances, noting the risk situations in five fields of fourteen: market shares, public debt, unemployment, long-term unemployment and youth unemployment.
According to the latest information, the College of Commissioners should consider the increasingly excessive imbalances, but without opening a penalty procedure, because the relationship-country associated to political judgment and published just ten days ago has been cautiously encouraging (see Il Sole 24 Ore of 27 February ). “Overall – we read in the report – Italy has made some progress in following up country-specific recommendations of 2015 ‘.
He explained yesterday a EU member,” The College of Commissioners may decide to send to some countries at risk ‘in terms of the deficit a communication “would remember the conclusions” concerning the preliminary Financial for this year “in the light of the latest winter weather.” The policy choice is delicate. Brussels does not want or impose choices that could weigh on the recovery, nor stir up tempers. At the same time want to keep on the alert the countries with the highest debt.
Speaking yesterday from London, Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan has merely confirmed that “Brussels is in progress with a normal discussion to verify the data 2016 public finance and thus to the Def, the economy and finance document of April, we will find a final solution of the fiscal framework and growth forecasts. ” then there will be substantial news in May when Brussels will present the assessment of the 2016 Stability and new recommendations-country.
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