Thursday, March 10, 2016

The ECB displaces all: cuts rates, brings the Qe 80 billion and buy corporate bonds – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published March 10, 2016 at 13:51 hours.
the last change is the March 10, 2016 at 18:00.

This time Mario Draghi did not disappoint, in fact. The European Central Bank has indeed surprised markets by announcing a series of expansionary measures by the strong impact of magazines to meet inflation expectations sharply downward and weaker growth than expected. “We have proven not to be short of ammunition,” said the president of the ECB. Here are quite a few innovations announced today by the Governing Council with a statement and then explained in a press conference by Draghi.

The ECB first cut all three key interest rates: the reference rate (refinancing rate) from 0.05% to zero, the deposit rate to -0.30 -0, 40% and the marginal lending facilitydallo 0.30 to 0.25 percent. The new rates will come into force on 16 March. “It means that we can get off at will with no consequences for the banking system? The answer is no, “said Draghi, suggesting that the negative deposit rate – seen with increasing skepticism of the German banking system – may have reached its minimum level.

The novelty perhaps more relevant is the increase in monthly purchases of government bonds from 60 to 80 billion as of April, the measure most anticipated and potentially one of the greatest effect. The program will last at least until March 2017, as already agreed last December, but Draghi stressed that rates will remain at minimum a long time, “even well beyond the time horizon of our purchases” of government bonds. The ECB has also raised to 50% from 33% affordable limit of each bond issue.

In the Qe program were also included for the first time – no waiting for other news on the eve – the denominated bond in euro issued by non-financial companies, provided they have a level of investment credit rating (investment grade). Draghi said that it will be “a committee decide which companies are candidates’ purchase of bonds. “At the moment – he said – we have not yet taken any decision on businesses” that will fund. The ECB will launch the 4 new Tltro (Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations) corporate bond purchases will start “towards the end of the second quarter of this year.”

Finally from June 2016 to March 2017, long-term loans term to banks, with a duration of 4 years and a rate that will go down to the level of the new deposit rate (-0.40%). In the new package of four maxi-loans, said Draghi, the banks will pay a rate much more negative (starting from zero the main rate) the more they will do credit to businesses and families.

This fed package of measures comes not coincidentally the same day that the staff of the ECB economists also revised down its growth forecast and the euro area inflation. GDP growth in 2016 is now expected at + 1.4% against + 1.7% in December and in 2017 to +1.7 from +1.9 to cento.Ancora more drastic downward revision to the inflation , which this year for the oil effect will be 0.1% and not more than 1% as expected in December and in the coming months, said Draghi “will be bad” without dropping the eurozone into deflation . Without the intervention of Frankfurt, he has claimed,
“today we would have a disastrous deflation.”

The barrage of ads goes well beyond the expectations of the vigil and was immediately greeted with a leap of the Stock Exchange and the euro decline. Later, however, the single currency has erased the losses when Draghi said that the ECB has no plans to further lower rates, while the stock markets have virtually eliminated the gains. The interpretations of this sudden change of mood abound: from the investors’ doubts about the effectiveness of the new measures to the drastic cut in the fact that the same inflation estimates an arsenal so rich this serves to highlight the seriousness of the economic situation and the danger of deflation . Positive bank stocks, despite the fact that the further cutting of the negative deposit rate had been criticized on the eve of several institutions, especially Germans.

None of the analysts went so far as to imagine a range interventions so wide. In particular, the increase in the Q and 60 to 80 billion goes beyond the average expectations of 70 billion, as well as the inclusion of corporate bonds in the list of securities purchased by the ECB and the cut in the refinancing rate from 0.05% to zero.

at the meeting today, the rotation system in the Governing Council did not vote the president of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann and other members considered “hawks” in monetary policy. Draghi, however, pointed out that the decisions were taken by an “overwhelming majority” of the votes and that the rotation system has not affected the outcome of the meeting. (G.Me.)



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