In the age of uncertainty there is nothing so little ‘final-initivo’ of the document estimates of economics and finance. Even that launched in 2016 by the Renzi government is no exception.
Ever since there was the budget law, the budget document (acronym explaining better the predictive nature of the executive’s analysis) father of the current document, and all the other Palazzo Chigi statistics were related to three variables: burden of debt, GDP growth, inflation trend.
Today, in euro, nothing has changed, even the fact that often the reality is then departs from programs. The Italian Treasury must always find every year the difference between the interest you pay to its creditors and the primary surplus, what remains the difference between revenue and expenses, net of bills of exchange to be honored.
The money that survive in this subtraction are used to finance investments, taxes decline, including through reductions in spending (always been arduous by Guido Carli times, compare first issue of The Republic to believe), income policy: yesterday the filing of personal income tax rates, now 80 euro. Because then the exercise of technicians Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and associates of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, has become so difficult?
There are three reasons. First of all, accomplices new European accounting rules – Fiscal compact, communal verification of the law of Stability- the national governments moving spaces are increasingly tight to , because they all are committed to having a balanced budget also in the absence of growth; for this, rightly, we Italians we move it to 2019.
According to because of the end of the crisis you can not boost investment (fallen by 20% in Europe since 2008 ) is private, held back by market volatility, and public, caged absurd EU rule that does not allow scomputarli by the Maastricht constraints.
The third element of almost insurmountable difficulties is the absence of inflation . Without inflation, indeed, in the presence of deflation, each estimate is bound to get high because the nominal GDP (over rising prices growth) will be designed to be equal to the real GDP (growth minus inflation) and the potential GDP, usually estimated by international organizations .
We are surprised that the 2017 deficit will need another 11 billion flexibility to tend to zero after two years? But how could it be otherwise with no inflation and no growth at least 2%? Someone has doubts that the debt burden monstre Italian and its relationship to GDP would be even 132% of the national wealth if there was a bit ‘of demand-pull inflation can increase the denominator?
It ‘good to take note that these variables, aside from the reforms carried out and the duty reduction in spending, nothing can Italy as any other European country. And nothing seems to also serve the Quantitative Easing ECB. We must therefore be content to grow this year by 1.2%, to have a deficit-GDP by 1.8% in 2017 and a unemployment just below 11%, when in the US and ‘the 5%? Certainly not.
But the Renzi government should persuade the Commission to act more resolutely Juncker on eurozone GDP , not only with the sophisticated of the same name by 315 billion euro (of which at today were mobilized 76 billion, but in fact already finances bankable projects) but decided to European public works policies, all to be released by the Treaty.
they take one hundred, a thousand bridges and highways, new infrastructure, open-air museums, digital start up, that the re-launch work. And this can only happen if it is implemented the Golden Rule, the fact deduction from the Community budget rules of national expenditure to invest in growth. Without this bold move, the daily efforts will be useless to move a little ‘beyond the effects of the penalty on the debt, the grip of the commitments to raise taxes if you do not cut spending (15 billion escape clauses since Tremonti come from all postponed governments) or the promise to make new privatizations to reduce debt. All policies will be short of breath, ready to be contradicted the next update.
There is a European economy, not only Italian, which is ridden with decision. One final note, waiting for Parliament to examine the Renzi-Padoan plan, must be made on ‘ yet another stop to quote requests for new flexibility of Italy, came from Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen , as Rome has already used more than all other exemptions to the accounts. This position ‘at least refutable, numbers and facts in hand.
The excess of the 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio in France and Germany at the beginning of the millennium, the continuing Berlin’s trade surplus in spite of EU laws, the 60 billion bailout of Spanish banks, European aid to bankrupt countries like Ireland and Portugal, the 86 billion euro loan to Greece again, the white paper on donated migrants to London to avoid Brexit, how they should be cataloged? Flexibility or real concessions to national needs? I do not understand why Brussels uses a ferocious face only a founding country , our, first-line, however, in defending the principles of solidarity and support that our Union has in its DNA and that often forgets to have to deal with decimal.
If this is indeed the mentality of EU summits – and frankly I hope not – there will be no possibility to find a common way out of the enormous difficulties that afflict us. Regardless of the goodness or otherwise of the Def estimates.
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