Confindustria: with No Risk referendum political chaos – BBC

Rita Querze

Vincenzo Boccia

Chain reactions such to bring Italy into recession. A slowdown in production estimated at 4 points in less than GDP spread over three years (2017, ’18 and ’19). This effect of a victory of the No to the constitutional referendum of October.

a new leap into recession

the estimate comes from the office of Confindustria studies. Which provides – in case of victory of the No – a situation of “political chaos.” With the prime minister forced to resign, inability to form a government and then elections. The election, however, Confindustria would only hand over the country to a period of instability. Fraught with negative consequences for economic reasons: increase in yields on government bonds, the worsening credit crunch, increased interest expense related to the financing of public debt, difficulties of the Treasury to carry through the auctions of government bonds, capital flight . The effect of this scenario on the GDP would be as follows: 0.7% in 2017, -1.2% in 2018, + 0.2% in 2019. In fact, three years of recession. With an overall loss of 1.7 percent of GDP. While – according to the research department of Astronomy Avenue – the situation would be very different with the Yes victory in the same three years, the GDP would rise by 2.3%. Hence the gap to four percentage points separating the two scenarios. Obviously this would open a “labor question”: 258,000 fewer seats by winning the No against 319 more seats than today if the famished Yes.

the political reactions

Predictable political reactions to the scenario outlined by Confindustria. Starting from the front of the No. Renato Brunetta, leader of Forza Italy in the House: “The bureaucrats office of Confindustria studies do not know what they say and by desperate use the ultimate weapon of blackmail against the people.” “Those provided by Confindustria if the Yes victory are the ten plagues of Egypt, missing only the locusts,” joked but not too Senator Roberto Calderoli of the League. As the parent company of Deputies of the Italian Left Arturo Scotto speaks of “terrorism on the outcome of the referendum.” For his part, the president of Confindustria Vincenzo Boccia explained that the constitutional referendum “Confindustria has to take sides when sharing topics and content.” Because “the referendum is a question of governability and stability.”

The scenery of Brexit

The scenery on the referendum is grafted onto the already delicate of Brexit. Confindustria has estimated the cost to Italy of the UK exiting the EU in the years 2016-2017 in 0.6 percent of GDP in less than 81 thousand jobs less, 154 EUR per capita income less and 113,000 poor in most. Yesterday the meeting of Federmeccanica Boccia also spoke of bargaining. “Industrial relations are a factor of competitiveness for the country. We lower the spotlight, do not do questions of principle but the time becomes an important factor, “he said Boccia refers to comparison being in the category of metalworkers. The hook was immediately picked up remotely by Annamaria Furlan, head of the CISL: “We agree with Boccia when he says that it is up to the parties to rewrite the rules of contracts.”

1 July 2016 (amendment 1 July 2016 | 22:27)

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