MILAN – Short week for the celebration of May, but full of ideas for the markets of the Old Continent. From Europe and the US, in fact, are expected a shower of macroeconomic data, beginning with the data on GDP for the first quarter until the unemployment rate in March. In the background are the tensions related to the rescue of Greece: the negotiations between Athens and Brussels progressing slowly as evidenced by the stalemate Ecofin Riga, but in mid-May the government Tsipras will be required to repay € 850 million to the IMF.
To complicate negotiations there are also tensions between the European ministers greek Yanis Varoufakis that after being called an “amateur” by colleagues, replied via Twitter citing US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his speech at the 1936 eve of the election where he was re-elected for a second term: “I am unanimous in their hatred against me and I I welcome their hatred. A quote, adds the minister, close to my heart (and the reality) these days.”
The tensions are likely to affect the market Eurozone debt, especially on Italy which reported a rise in spreads in area 130 points with BTP that make just under 1.4%. Even in this context will be interesting to evaluate the outcome of the three-day auction which is called the Treasury between Monday and Wednesday: you start with an offer of CTZ and BTP-i to a value between 2 and 2.75 billion; then Tuesday will be the turn of the semi-Bot, up to 6.5 billion; Finally, it’s up to Cteu for an amount of between 1.750 and 2.250000000000; BTP to 5 years for a total of 3-4 billion 10-year BTP 1.5-2 billion.
A support prices could also contribute to the Credit Suisse report that “no one can see signs of a global slowdown but growth that could favor the developed markets rather than emerging markets. ” According to the investment bank, the global economy would be “in the midst of a transition as a result of which growth will shift from emerging markets to developed, mainly due to the drop in oil prices.”
The concerns are fairly addressed in the next moves of the ECB. According to Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland and member of the board of the European Central Bank, a flood of money at low prices is likely to create a bubble in financial markets if interest rates will remain low for an extended period. In an interview with Handelsblatt says: “Be careful, if the interest rates will remain low for a long time there is this risk.”
Here are the main events of the week macroeconomic
Monday.
– Germany: import prices, March
Tuesday.
– Japan: retail sales, in March; trust companies, April
– Eurozone: acea presents the data for the month of March on registrations of commercial vehicles in Europe
– France: consumer confidence, April
– Great Britain: GDP, first
quarter – United States: c / shiller index of home prices, in February; Consumer confidence (cb), April
Wednesday.
– Italy: Istat makes known data in business confidence and consumer related to April
– Eurozone: Consumer confidence, in April; trust industry, in April; trust services, in April; economic confidence index, April
– Germany: Inflation (lander), April
– USA: core consumption deflator (advance), first trim; pil, first quarter
Thursday.
– Japan: industrial production, in March; retail sales, March
– France: consumer spending, March
– Spain: HICP, in April; pil, first quarter
– Germany: unemployment rate, April
– Italy: unemployment rate; consumer prices; industrial producer prices for March
– Eurozone inflation (flash), in April; unemployment rate, March
– United States: labor costs, first quarter; consumption deflator, in March; household incomes, in March; grant applications, weekly; Consumer spending (nominal), March; Pmi (Chicago), April
Friday.
– Japan: Household consumption, in March; inflation, in March; jobs, used to ratio, in March; unemployment rate in March.
– China: PMI manufacturing, in April; Non-manufacturing PMI, April
– UK: consumer credit, in March; PMI manufacturing, April
– USA: family trust (Michigan) (final), in April; ISM manufacturing index, in April; Construction spending, in March; vehicle sales, April
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