In the hearing before the budget committees of the House and Senate in the examination of joint Def, President dell’Upb, Giuseppe Pisauro, expressed strong doubts especially on the so-called “treasure 1.6 billion,” explaining that it is unwise and premature for the Government claims that he intends to use the room for improvement in the deficit expected in 2015 without waiting for this improvement to materialize. These resources, in short, have been given to acquired a priori.
Concerns also about the risks related to some variables such as the price of oil and the trend of the euro / dollar. Risks, those that might upset the forecasts, in particular those for the years 2016 to 2017.
“Some variables, such as the oil and the exchange rate, are projected constant over time from 2016 to 2019 . What happens if the price of oil goes to 100 or on the contrary to 33? These assumptions are subject to a significant risk of revision unfavorably “noted Pisauro. In addition, the government estimate contained in Def on the contribution that will be given to the growth of consumption and investment is “optimistic”.
While roughly the overall figure on growth is similar between independent forecasters and Government, the Executive gives a different reading on the contribution of domestic demand components with a forecast particularly optimistic when you look at the expected growth in consumption and investment while “on the contrary it is quite pessimistic about the contribution of net exports.
April 21, 2015 10:35 – Last Updated: 13:09
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