GDP, Istat expects growth in the second quarter: + 0.2% – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published May 29, 2015 at 10:25.
The last change is the 29 May 2015 at 17:28.

Italy out of recession in the first quarter 2015, the GDP is growing again, with an increase 0.3% compared to the last quarter 2014. The notes Istat, confirming the estimates of 13 May on the given economic situation. This is the biggest increase for four years. The real-term change in GDP expected for the second quarter is estimated at + 0.2%, with a “fork” of between 0 and + 0.4%. ” In the first quarter of 2015, GDP rose by 0.1% instead of an annual basis. In this case, ISTAT revised upwards since the trend previously estimated (no change): the first sign is more in trend terms after 13 quarters. The level of GDP is still, explain the technical Istat, “around the levels of early 2000 ‘. As for the growth in GDP for 2015 gained, that you would get that in the presence of a short-term change anything in the remaining quarters of the year, it was 0.2%.

Istat: in the second quarter GDP expected + 0.2%
The economic growth is “expected to continue in the coming months.” The real-term change in GDP expected for the second quarter “is + 0.2%, with a confidence interval (the so-called ‘fork’, ed) from 0 to + 0.4%.” So Istat, the monthly note on the basis of short-term forecasting model developed by the Institute.

Jobs, lacking clear signals reverse route
In the note monthly Istat also launches an alarm on the employment front. “In the early months of 2015 – it says – the labor market has shown clear signs of a turnaround.”

Stall consumption, but investment in recovery
At the beginning of 2015, household spending is back down on a cyclical basis, albeit slightly (-0.1%), after a final period in which he had shown signs of recovery. Istat instead registered a sharp increase in gross fixed capital formation, increasing 1.5% from the previous quarter, so that the trend has given the best result for four years (+ 0.4%). In terms of foreign trade, adds, imports increased (1.4%) and exports stagnated. In detail, domestic demand excluding inventories made a positive contribution to GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points (+0.3 points gross fixed capital formation, household consumption -0.1 and Social Institutions and Private contributions zero expenditure of Pa). Changes in inventories provided a positive contribution of 0.5 percentage points. By contrast, the contribution of net exports and ‘was a negative 0.4 points.

Boom agriculture at the beginning of 2015
worth noting that agriculture began in 2015 marking a significant increase in the value added, grew by 6.0% in the first quarter since the last of 2014, when he recorded a fall of 4.3%. He communicated that the Istat reported positive data for the industry excluding construction (+ 0.6%) and construction (+ 0.5%), and was found a short-term change nothing in the services sector .

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