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Bags and weak tension on government bonds on the day of reopening of markets after Greece warned that on June 5 will repay the installment of 300 million euro due to Monetary Fund , the first of four to expire during the month. Milan Stock Exchange, which in the opening left on the ground 1.5%, has compounded the losses coming to score, in closing, -2.09%. Worse only Athens, who filed the sitting at -3.11 percent. The Italian stock market was weighed down by bank stocks, although MPS on the day of launch of the capital increase by 3 billion failed to set price for most of the day. A witness to the fear of investors, however, was above the market bonds : the performance of bonds to ten years of Italy, that the Greece has paid 40000000000 , opened 1.84% and 13 broke through the roof of 2%, which has not happened since mid-December. With the result that the differential ( spread ) compared to Bund German, which makes 0.61%, widened to 144.8 against 125 on Friday 22, then close to 139: it has never been so large since January. We must consider that since the quantitative easing of the ECB in March, until the end of April, the interest rate on BTP has never exceeded 1.5%. Heavy even Madrid, which lost 2.01%. In this case, however, also it weighs the electoral success of Podemos (the Eurosceptic party heir of indignados ) in local elections and regional. Frankfurt and London were closed for holidays. Postponed to Tuesday, then, the test market for Britain, after a weekend of controversy following the spread “involuntary” by the Bank of England , a document on the risks of a ‘ exit of Britain from the Union, the so-called “Brexit”.
But it is on the Grexit that are focused now the eyes of the other EU countries, exposed directly against Athens nearly 190 billion euro. L ‘ understood in extremis between the Government of Alexis Tsipras and creditors is not at all excluded. On Monday, the spokesperson greek, Gavriil Sakelaridis , said Athens “ want to be on time ” in responding to the IMF refunds due – 1.6 billion total in June – but it must “take into account the liquidity problems that there are.” “To the extent that we will be able to pay, pay,” in other words. The Central Committee of Syriza, which met Monday, has rejected the request of the extremist wing of the party not to repay loans to the IMF, nationalize the banks and hold a referendum that would give voters the power to reject any agreement with creditors on further reforms of the financial statements. The Minister of Finance Yanis Varoufakis has instead written in a speech on Project Syndicate that the greek government is “ready to implement an agenda that includes all the reforms” sought, but the obstacle in the negotiations remains “the subtle but constant insistence of our creditors on more austerity “. That “would prevent recovery, hamper growth, worsen the cycle of debt-deflation and, in the end, would undermine the willingness and ability of the Greeks to understand the reform agenda that the country desperately needs,” continuing “a cure proved, in five long years, worse than the disease “.
Statement of principle aside, many analysts expect, however, that Greece, after trying to play everything for everything, in the end raise flag White and accept a reform plan written by Brussels group , or the ex troika: the IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank . Or it could be the German chancellor Angela Merkel to intervene to bring down the “hawks” – including his own finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble – relented. Maybe doing extended even the current level of financial assistance and unlocking the disbursement of at least a part of the latest tranche from 7.2 billion that Athens has yet to cash in .
If the worst case scenario were to materialize, with Greece does not pay and the IMF after the canonical 30-day “grace” officially ends in a default is not controlled, the consequences would be very heavy. It ‘very likely that the government freeze accounts and movements of capital to buffer the drain liquidity all’ foreign, which otherwise has been running since February, after the electoral victory of Syriza. L ‘ exit from the euro , but not wanted by the majority of the population and even the executive Tsipras, would be an inevitable consequence. In recent weeks, have chased rumors about the possibility to pay public wages and pension are introduced of “IOUs” (promises to pay) or other alternatives and that banks are nationalized. Credit and foreign debts would be converted into comunqeu drachmas , which svaluterebbero heavily , at least 40%. Inflation would rise through the roof, reducing even the purchasing power of the citizens already undermined by years of austerity.
Although the macroeconomic more favorable than to that of 2012 due to the intervention of the Eurotower, then, there would be effects on other countries that have adopted the single currency. The Grexit, in fact, will power – as it is already doing, judging by the trend in interest rates on BTP – the speculation against the government bonds of countries considered most light . As Italy. Which will thus increase the interest rates payable for refinance your debt . Instead are once again rewarded solids Bund German. As for the $ 40 billion of direct loans granted by Rome to Greece, the overall loss will depend on the decisions of Athens, which could limit the reduction due (called haircut ) to a percentage or to default on the entire exposure bilaterally and through the European Financial Stability Facility .
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