ROME – What everyone imagined would happen, but that repeated like a mantra that would not happen, will happen. In June, Greece will not reimburse the loans of the International Monetary Fund. As explained yesterday in a television interview Interior Minister greek, Nikos Voutsis, four installments totaling EUR 1.6 billion that Athens should be paid by June in Washington will not be paid.
“This money will not be paid,” said Voutsis, “because there is not.” That money were missing, after all, he had already left it clear a few days ago the volcanic Economy Minister Yanis Varoufakis, he explained as having to choose between paying salaries and pensions or the IMF, would definitely choose the former. But are months that signals the difficulty of Athens to repay debts to international creditors are followed. In April to meet deadlines, the government had seized all Tsipras case of local authorities. In May, to pay an installment of the Fund had used a technical loophole, using so-called drawing rights at the IMF to offset the debt. If Greece will pay the first installment in June, the one that expires Friday 5th, it will enter a terra incognita. To date no country, not even Argentina, he missed payment of loans obtained from the Fund. According to many observers if Greece was not in the eurozone, with this exhibition, he has already made default. But that is precisely the point.
THE NEGOTIATING
The fate of Athens is tied to the euro. A Grexit, the exit of Greece from the single currency, could make the eyes of the markets no more irreversible the European project. Despite the umbrella of Quantitative easing by the ECB, the speculation could reappearance. This Athens knows. And use it as a negotiating weapon. Just listen, once again, the words of Varoufakis. “The exit of Greece from the single currency would be the beginning of the end for the euro project,” he said yesterday commenting on the case of non-repayment of the installment to the IMF. “If you are in a monetary union,” he added, “get out of it is catastrophic.” A dramatization somehow parallel to the one that occurred on the other side, the German one. As recently as a few days ago, in a long interview with the W sj, the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble said he could no longer rule out a Greek default, hoping somehow that to say the last word on an agreement between Athens and creditors, were the same Greek voters. In short, a sort of referendum on staying in the euro and a judgment on the actions of the government short while Tsipras. So exasperated tones may however, also mean that the negotiation has reached a crucial point. The same Tsipras returning to Athens from the Riga Summit, said he was ready for a compromise that was not but “humiliating” and “unreasonable” for the Greeks. Athens does not want to back down on increasing the minimum wage to 751 Euros reported. On revenue, beginning from VAT, some opening in addition there would be. The most likely scenario, at this point, would be to an agreement in two times. At first Athens would accept higher taxes to unlock at least 7.2 billion tranche of aid which still has to be collected. One way to avoid becoming insolvent. In a second step could then negotiate reforms in the labor market and pensions. Thursday and next Friday there will be a G-7 in Dresden. In fact a meeting of creditors of Athens. But at this point to be lacking it is not only money. Even the weather has become an extremely scarce resource.
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