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This article was published May 29, 2015 at 14:47.
The last change is the 29 May 2015 at 15:19.
NEW YORK – The negative sign in the first quarter US GDP came as feared. The review of the data showed a sharp economic slowdown which occurred in the early months of 2015, a slowdown that the Federal Reserve and the White House hope is really only temporary and largely due to obstacles such as outdated a long winter storm. The contraction was 0.7%, less than 1% expected by many economists but still a real cold shower for an expansion from 2009 to date has struggled to really take off. It has since become the third quarterly contraction.
A damage growth in the first part of the year were the trade deficit, with exports of “made in USA” stopped by the strengthening of the dollar against the euro and other major currencies. And, at his side, also a weakening in consumer spending and business investment in the United States.
In retail consumer spending has risen 1.8% instead of 1.9% initially estimated and 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Purchases of durable goods fell to its lowest almost four years. Business investment in plant, equipment and research are both fallen at the rate of 2.8%, the most abrupt nosedive since 2009 although lower than the 3.4% indicated by the first reading of the data.
The exports fell by 7.6%, 7.2% more than estimated so far. And in goods slipped by 14%, the highest for six years now. Government spending contracted by 1.1%, in turn more than 0,8% suggested. Inflation, in this climate anemic, remains absent: the price index tied to personal consumption fell by 2%, and the “core”, ie ‘purified from volatile energy food components, and’ rose 0.8 %, all percentages far from the 2% desired by the Fed as a sign of a recovery healed.
The Central Bank has indicated in its recent summits and speeches of its members, to consider the braking as undesirable a momentary setback. The forecast is that the economy has regained momentum at least in part, to a modest pace of growth of 2%, already in the current quarter, the second of the year. But the Fed and its Governor Janet Yellen also showed the intention to wait at least the end of the year for an eventual and gradual increase in interest rates that start the process of normalization of monetary policy and avoid excessive speculative bubbles and imbalances on financial markets, just to take account of the uncertainties still highlighted by the American economy.
He weighed negatively also the decline in corporate profits, which fell by 8.7 percent. Several multinational companies, from Microsoft to Procter & amp; Gamble until Johnson & amp; Johnson, have warned that the strength of the dollar will weigh on sales and margins this year.
Finally, there is a debate between economists. Some experts, including the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, have expressed doubts about the authenticity of the data of the first quarter. In particular they consider unreliable surveys seasonally adjusted. The government last week said he was aware of the problem and to be committed to finding a solution.
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