“The 0.7% that comes out by Istat is lower than the forecast of the Government, I would rather see a decimal in more rather than less, but as you know the decimal count for little, the important thing is the direction gear which is growth, after three years of deep recession, which is confirmed and strengthened in 2016 “, said Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan.
Italian GDP fourth quarter +0, 1%, before 2015 0.7% growth estimate – in the fourth quarter of 2015 the gross domestic product, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, rose 0.1% from the previous quarter and 1.0% on an annual basis. So Istat in the flash estimate. The fourth quarter of 2015 had two working days less than the previous quarter and a working day more than in the fourth quarter of 2014.
German GDP in the fourth quarter of 0.3%, in line with estimates
in 2015 the GDP, adjusted for calendar effects, rose 0.6%. So Istat in the flash estimate, when we remember that 2015 had three working days more than in 2014. It adds that the annual change in GDP calculated on the raw quarterly data is equal to + 0.7%. The government estimates contained in the note of the Def update for 2015 is + 0.9%. The institute’s official estimate of Statistics will arrive next March 1.
The Istat recorded growth for the fourth quarter 2015 (+ 0.1%) is lower than the estimates of the same institute of statistics and of the major analysts. The last institution’s estimate, contained in a monthly note out to the beginning of December was + 0.2% with a confidence interval of between 0 and 0.4%. Consensus collected by Bloomberg was 0.3%.
The economic growth of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 (+ 0.1%) has been slowing compared to previous, to find a lower need to return the last in 2014 (when a -0.1% was recorded). And ‘what emerges from the Istat series which released the preliminary estimate of GDP. The year started out with a + 0.4% in the first quarter, followed by a + 0.3% from + 0.2%. Instead, the variation trend (+ 1%) was the highest since the second quarter of 2011.
Back up in 2015, gave better from 2011 – Despite the slowdown of the year-end, 2015 confirms the exit of the recession, with annual GDP returning to the plus sign after three consecutive years in the negative. And ‘what emerges from the first Istat data on the fourth quarter, which remained positive despite a result below expectations. Remember, though, that these are provisional figures based on quarters. The first official estimate of the annual growth for 2015 will come next March 1. According to today’s estimates last year would have closed + 0.7% after -2.8% in 2012, -1.7% in 2013 and -0.4% in 2014. The last positive figure It dates back to 2011 when it was recorded an increase of + 0.6%. To find a higher growth must return to 2010.
Male industry, agriculture and services grow – The quarterly change in the Italian economy in the fourth quarter is “the synthesis a decrease in the value added in the industry sector and increases in that of agriculture and services. ” So Istat, analyzing the performance by macro-sector, the preliminary estimate of gross domestic product.
National Question down, towing abroad – This time the national question, composed by consumption, investment and inventories, it goes down. Driving the growth is rather foreign. And ‘what emerges from the Istat estimates on the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015. “On the demand side, there is a negative contribution of domestic component (gross inventories), more than offset by the positive contribution of net foreign component” , explains the Institute analyzing the components of GDP in the last quarter of the year.
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