Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Eurogroup lighthouse on Italian accounts – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on March 8, 2016 at 08:17 hours.
the last change is the March 8, 2016 at 9:56.

BRUSSELS – the ministers of the euro zone finance have returned yesterday to say concerned about the progress of the Italian public finances, noting that Italy might not comply with European rules on public debt restructuring. The call comes as the European Commission now has to decide whether and how to ask the government Renzi further fiscal measures to put the national budget on track, taking into account among other things the economic slowdown.

the Eurogroup yesterday published at the end of a regular monthly meeting, a first analysis of the state of public finances in 2016. Reiterating what has been said already in November, the ministers stressed based on recent economic estimates of Brussels, that ‘ Italy – along with six other countries – may not respect the rules of the Stability Pact. In this context, they noted that in the past four months, the government Renzi adopted “measures that increased the public deficit.”

Italy presented late last year a controversial Budget for 2016 which is based on generous demands for budgetary flexibility (especially related to new investments and new reforms). A judgment is expected in Brussels in May. “We note – they wrote in a statement the finance ministers – that even in the case of the maximum required flexibility remains the risk of a significant deviation concession ‘public accounts than the path set towards a balanced budget.
” We welcome Italy’s commitments to take the necessary measures to ensure that the budget 2016 is respectful of the rules of the Pact, “he explained at a press conference here in Brussels Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the more that” according to the latest economic forecast Commission Italy does not respect the rule of debt nor in 2015 nor in 2016 ». The Eurogroup does not ask directly to Italy new fiscal consolidation measures.

However, in general, and referring to the seven countries in difficulty, the ministers of the euro zone finance pointed out in their statement: “Member States shall (…) whose plans are at risk of non-compliance with the rules of the Stability Pact should take, in a timely manner, additional measures to address the risks identified by the European Commission.” The rules on debt restructuring forecast for Italy in the liabilities reduction of one-twentieth per year over three years.

Today in Strasbourg the European Commission will make the wait analyzes on macroeconomic imbalances in 18 EU countries. Among these also Italy, by way of a high and a low competitiveness debt. As in 2015, the Community executive should decide to consider excessive imbalances Italian, but without opening a penalty procedure. At the same time, the college of commissioners will have to decide whether to take this opportunity to send a letter of warning to Italy.

According to information gathered here in Brussels, the letter – if he is sent to Rome – should take stock of the situation of Italian public finances, especially in light of the latest economic forecasts from the European Commission published in early February. On that occasion, the EU executive had noticed a sharp increase in the structural deficit estimate from 1.0% of GDP in 2015 to 1.7% of GDP in 2016 (in autumn the estimate was 1.5% ).

In this circumstance, the Commission may then ask Italy additional public finance measures to avoid a significant deviation of the public finances than the path set towards a balanced budget. He stated yesterday that a Community representative in the case, Brussels should use “light touch”. The Commissioner for Monetary Affairs Pierre Moscovici stressed yesterday the importance of dialogue between Rome and Brussels.



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