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This article was published March 10, 2016 at 06:35 hours.
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a moderate growth, supported solely by private consumption, should ensure an increase in the gross domestic product in the first quarter by 0.1 %, with a projection on the acquired 0.4% annual GDP. These are the latest numbers released by Istat in the monthly notice on the Italian economy, which follow the five days the data on the last quarter of 2015 (+ 0.1% economic) which was related hypothesis of acquired variation for the year by 0.2 percent.
The new estimate, the better to two decimal places, is tied to + 0.1% in the first quarter, in the short-term forecasting model, fluctuates within a confidence interval of between -0.1% and + 0.3%. Driver of this weaker economic outlook, as mentioned, are private consumption, while foreign demand and consumption of public administrations would weigh negatively against a zero effect of gross investment. The Istat known then records the passage in negative territory, after nine months just above freezing, in consumer price inflation, which in February would stand at -0.3% (Nic index for the entire community) six tenths lower in January, while excluding volatile components (energy and food products) underlying inflation down from 0.8% in January to 0.5% in February. “My personal concern – noted the deputy minister of the economy Enrico Morando – for inflation, since it is not in our control. This is the most serious risk that faces Europe, and Italy. And of course, a country with a high debt facing the risk of deflation should have greater concern. ” Morando according to ISTAT estimates confirm that “there is a slowdown, there is no doubt, and even the Eurogroup noted that there are international factors responsible for the slowdown of a process that has a plus sign in front anyway.”
the international factors that weigh on the Italian economy and the euro are all puntualizzati in Istat noted, ranging financial instability to China’s slowing the decline in consumption, investment and exports, however, where the US continues to hold the market work (unemployment to 4.9% with 242 thousand new non-farm payrolls in February).
In the euro area, GDP grew in the fourth quarter by 0.3% on a cyclical basis, in line with the trends observed previously. However, in this context, at the end of 2015 it was a significant deceleration confirmed by declines in industrial production.
Returning to Italy in the labor market by 0.3% growth in employment is confirmed January (+70 thousand employed, after the drop recorded in December (-0.2%). the increase is due entirely to employees (+ 0.4%), in particular to those on permanent contracts (+ 0.7% , equal to +99 thousand individuals), compared with a decline of term employees (-1.2%, -28 thousand employed) and a substantial stability of the independent. But the unemployment rate remains at 11.5% , unchanged for five months.
In the note is offered a focus on the effects of the reform of the labor market. According to ISTAT, more than 50% of companies the relief for stable employment have played a key role. “For half of manufacturing firms that reported an increase in employment between January and November 2015 – says the focus -, the contribution exemptions have been a relevant factor.” And in the service sector’s share of those for which the news was very or fairly important is 61%. The new contract at increasing protections – the so-called Jobs Act – seems to have exerted a positive role even though ‘with less intensity. ” The contract at increasing protection was in fact “judged very or fairly important for the recruitment by 35% of companies’ manufacturing sector. Instead, it always reads the note INPS, “the importance of IRAP benefits for employers who hire indefinitely, seems less decisive than previous measures.” Returning to the service sector, the Jobs Act has had a more significant boost: “The proportion of those who judged the very or fairly important legislation in the decision to hire was 49.5%.”
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