General you find weak? The interest of Intesa Sanpaolo, for the Lion of Trieste, regardless of the final outcome of the match, has highlighted some weaknesses in relation to the actual tools that the insurance group has available to defend himself from an eventual operation hostile. The capitalisation and the shareholding structure appear as the achilles heel of a group always perceived as one of the flagships of the Italian finance in the world. The capitalization because, with almost 25 billion value on the Stock exchange, the insurance company remains the tail in the panorama of european players, from Allianz (75 billion) to Axa (57 billion) and Zurich (40 billion). The shareholding structure as the historical participation of 13 % at the end of Mediobanca, for years, able to ensure the independence of the company, today it seems they do not represent an effective deterrent.
And so if in the near the loan of the securities on 3,01% of the share capital of Intesa Sanpaolo has been a move capable of sparigliare cards and make it less linear operation designed by Ca' de Sass, it is equally true that in the long run serve the interventions of a more structural nature. Will probably be Jp Morgan, which according to rumors would be first in line for the assignment of the mandate from the General, to study countermeasures. In the meantime, however, in the financial environments we are encouraged to hypothesize solutions to the disposal of Mediobanca and of the General to prevent drowning unwanted. Italian or foreign.
business plan
The first option, according to some analysts, obviously, is to be followed up with greater conviction to the assumptions already contained in the current industrial plan, which envisages organic growth, but does not exclude development for external lines. Obviously, the key element to make it more complex, each can climb is to increase the size of the company and the shopping, all the more so abroad, it can certainly be a valid measure to increase the "size" of the Lion. In this perspective, some analysts remind us, as in the project presented at the investor Day on 23 November, the group, ready to close in 15 countries, was on the other side ready to a “disciplined growth in Asia and strengthened in Europe. Given that Italy is certainly not a target plausible, the areas that are giving more satisfaction to the Lion, are the Germany and the Europe of the East. It is there, evidently, that the company may look for opportunities to expand the perimeter, and maybe rebalance the burden of business life. Depending on the target, stresses a bank’s business, the company may assess to accompany the operation by launching a capital increase. Enough to strengthen balance sheet of the group but of such dimensions as to not make the maneuver excessively dilutive.
The axis UniCredit, Mediobanca
in Parallel to maneuvers that could study the General, points in the Bag, even the members in the chain of control may seek to raise the barricades. Of course, the fundamental, is the eventual timing. The shareholder is key to the General, as is well known, is Mediobanca, with 13% of the Lion. Piazzetta Cuccia, in turn, is owned by UniCredit, the main shareholder of the 8,56% of the share capital.
Messina: “Intesa SanPaolo defending the italianness”
The institute, however, is struggling with a delicate and challenging capital increase from 13 billion, and has already made clear did not want to revise the own weight in Mediobanca, to the extent that in a recent interview with the ceo Jean Pierre Mustier had declared that it participated “preserve” the General. In this context, the institute, led by Nagel, one should note, can act in a few directions. Among these there is the research of a possible white knight, or rather a series of subjects who would go on to reinforce the ranks of the shareholders already present to increase the weight of the italians in the capital of Trieste. Today Mediobanca sees lined up beside Francis Gateano Caltagirone (3.5%), And Leonardo Del Vecchio (3,1%), De Agostini (1.7%), vehicle Invag (1.2%) and the Fondazione Crt (1%).
The suggestion Mediolanum
finally, There is chi at Piazza Affari, to relaunch an old project: the integration between Banca Mediolanum and the General. The idea, in itself, would have the dual effect of increasing the critical mass of the Lion, especially in terms of market capitalisation, and at the same time to reshape the shareholder base of the group insurance by creating a block, the all-Italian able to check up to 30% of the General. It must be said, in this sense, that it seems very difficult that Ennio Doris, put on your plate his own creation to resolve the fate of the General. Just Doris sits in the pact Mediobanca, but on the occasion of the contention on the Rcs is deployed with the Ca' de Sass. However, it is noted, at this time we can not exclude anything.
However, a plan of this kind could fit at a time when the permanence of Fininvest in the share capital of Banca Mediolanum is “maybe”. As to the technical aspects of the operation, today General capitalizes around 24.5 billion, while Banca Mediolanum is worth $ 5.4 billion, along with thus might create a group close to 30 billion Stock market value. And, assuming that the family of Doris finds the shares of the Bank now in the portfolio of Fininvest, the General would have a new strong partner at around 12% which is sommerebbero shares diluted of Mediobanca and of the impreditori Italian. Piazzetta Cuccia is expected to fall to 10.6%, while the core private would have little less than 8%.
Video-analysis-Understanding-the General, calm (apparent) and the reorganization required
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