ITALY is contemplating whether to challenge the Europe and the markets, does not make the corrective measures to 3.4 billion subject to an infringement procedure for non-compliance with the debt rule.
With this in mind, Pier Carlo Padoan landed yesterday in Brussels to take part in the Eurogroup, the table of the Finance ministers of the single currency. If concealed, the government is with the Commission for putting in the effort and lengthen the time of the intervention, in the not always easy relationship between Nazareth, Palazzo Chigi and the Treasury, however, is emerging the possibility to blow up the table and not take action on the accounts. And maybe set up a campaign on the No to Europe, and several billions of dollars to spend once you have broken the parameters of the Eu. Especially if the elections will be held in June.
Publicly yesterday, was tense. In the morning, the european Commission has confirmed to have received the letter with which Gentiloni called for a reduction of at least a billion for the earthquake, but the commissioner for economic Affairs, Pierre Moscovici, responded by recalling that the new expenditure for the earthquake “do not enter into the discussion in progress” on the corrective action, but is ready to examine them in another context. And yet, on the adjustment of the accounts required by Brussels, “we are waiting for a precise answer”. How to say, not the letter with which the premier has asked for flexibility for the earthquake, but clear commitments. Padoan has ensured that the response to Brussels will arrive on time, i.e. by the first of February. If the technical intervention of Moscovici is not a wrinkle – the fix from 3.4 billion needs to be structural while the cost of the earthquake, are one-time – politically, the output of the French sends him on a rampage Rome. From the Nazarene Matteo Renzi is responding, the chairman of the Pd Matteo Orfini: “The words of Moscovici are staggering, while we are still mourning the dead of Rigopiano hear arguments own of bureaucracy is unacceptable and offensive”. In the evening, the French try to dissolve, remembering that Brussels “is completely on the side of Italy.”
The situation is complex. The government asks for time until mid-April, that is, to intervene with the Def. Also, try to tick the ok to put his hand to the accounts with a mix of measures, structural and non-structural (Brussels asks for all with a permanent effect) and try to decrease the scope of the intervention pushing on the expense of the new earthquake and asking Brussels the go-ahead to correct the accounts only of 0.16% to “round up politically” to the 0.2% of Gdp, or ordered by the Commission (€700 million savings). After you have received the letter of Gentiloni, the president of the Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has made it known to the premier is ready to help Italy, but the climate inside his team is not the best, with the commissioners, mps, led by vice-president Katainen and Dombrovskis, who push themselves to be inflexible and demand a immediate infringement procedure if Rome does not act quickly. The Eurogroup now is not particularly well-dispose d toward the government. Italy last year received a 19 billion flexibility on the restructuring of the accounts, this year has collected other 7, but the Eu – that has stretched the rules to the maximum – calling for a minimum intervention of 3.4 billion, the structural deficit so that the debt, which hovers somewhere around 133% of Gdp, is beginning to decrease.
However yesterday the men of the Treasury in Brussels, emphasized that after the ruling of the council on the Italicum “the political situation leaves open all of the scenarios because no secretary of the party in the event of a vote to close would approve a corrective action”. Therefore, they added, “all the assumptions are now on the table, also not to make the maneuver and suffer an european procedure”.
the secretary of The Pd, Matteo Renzi, is contrary to any intervention on the accounts in the electoral campaign, and with several of the ministers, and Carlo Calenda, pushes to blow up the table with Europe. Gentiloni is more cautious, so much so that yesterday Palazzo Chigi emphasized that “the decision not to make the maneuver at the moment there is not.” The Treasury, however, is prepared for every scenario, even the worst one, or to a commissioner european and studies the effects of the procedure on the spread. In a few words, if save 3.4 billion for manoeuvre, then it doesn’t cost the double on the markets of a Country that lives in a year of political uncertainty, without even the a in the ratings and with the “quantitative easing” of the Ecb in the phase reduction. Even if they acknowledge the technicians of the government, “the decision will be political” and not audit.
If the stiffening of the Italian aims to force the hand to Brussels, at the same time is a possible outcome if the vote will be tight, and the Eu will not make significant discounts. So much so, that in these hours is discussed, if not to respond precisely to the request of Brussels and the launch of a policy strongly expansive, which could bring growth and consent. More likely that Roma choose to reassure the Eu and to then skip the table below. Treasure cut short: “Padoan, Gentiloni and Renzi, speaking in the next few days and take a decision.”
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