ROME
On a technical level, the range of possible solutions to implement the adjustment from 3.4 billion of our public accounts asked by the european commission is ready, and it focuses especially on the revenue side. The hypothesis investigated in these days range from an extension of the reverse charge (from the bargain, however, in Brussels, shows the rejection of the 2015 on the extension of the reverse charge to the large-scale distribution) up to a mini-remodeling of the Vat, by activating a portion of the safeguard clauses suspended until the end of the year by the budget law. Will result in an increase in earnings, the reopening of the dossier the lord of the “tax expenditures”, i.e. the jungle of tax deductions by streamlining, while on the column of costs is more complicated to hypothesize measures with immediate effect.
lacking, however, is the political decision, without which the work on hypothesis remains academic. To call it will be between today and tomorrow, a summit between the premier Paolo Gentiloni and the minister of the Economy Pier Carlo Padoan, in view of the letter with the Italian response to be sent to Brussels by Wednesday. The tenant of Palazzo Chigi, and that of the Economy starting from a common goal, which is to avoid an infringement procedure, which could cost more than the correction requested by the Eu: a cost in terms first of all of the interest on the public debt, which has recently lost the last “A” in the rating, Dbrs and felt a growing pressure towards a progressive exit from the shield of the Ecb. In addition to the Scylla of the infringement, the Eu should be avoided the Charybdis of a maneuver “depressive” put some wedge further growth, which remains fragile.
Just to be able to take this narrow path, Rome points to “an interpretation, intelligent and favourable to the growth of our rules”, as explained by Gentiloni from Lisbon. In practice, in the new controversy on the decimals would be to limit the european account, maybe dimezzandolo to a single decimal of Gdp, which would be more manageable without intervention, too heavy, and to widen a little time. In this perspective, the construction of the measures may reopen in the stage of Def., to April, when you will give shape to the objectives for the next year and, if needed, to advance from the start already in 2017.
The solution of the new pulls, and the spring on the decimals, however, must also deal with the uncertainties of the policy; the european, where the views of hawks and doves on the committee must still be defined, but also of the Italian one, which is heated by the winds of election after the constitutional decision on the Italicum (yesterday, the secretary of the Pd Matteo Renzi is back to criticizing the “letters” which shows that “in Europe broke something”). From this point of view, some questions began to be raised also on the route of an eventual corrective action in Parliament, where no one is anxious to get closer to the vote) by voting in measures that would raise even just a little fiscal pressure. Yesterday, for example, the minister of agriculture Maurizio Martina said he was “absolutely contrary” to the hypothesis of an increase in the Vat, and also an intervention on the tax breaks, including those more niche, could meet a similar fate.
On the expenditure side, some results can you expect from the first application of the reform of the budget, which this year requires all the ministries to attend the appointment with the maneuver after you put it in black and white a real budget. But the timing of this path seem too relaxed for the european calendar.
gianni.trovati@ilsole24ore.com
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